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BLBD

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Blue Bird Corporation

Conservative #316Aggressive #220Low Risk
$58.85-5.58%
Day High$62.50
Day Low$58.49
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $3052W High $63
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
14.9
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
9.9%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
21.0%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.33

Why This Score

BLBD scores 61.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 55.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 14.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (99/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.4 points) applied. BLBD's rank of #316 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.6
Fundamental Score56.5
ML Score74.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.1
6 Month
77.3
Primary
1 Year
81.3

Quality Assessment

A
Quality Grade
Excellent quality โ€” strong profitability, low leverage, no flags

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
76
Grade B
Base
58.0
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.0
Divergence
-0.4
Final
61.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

77AVG
Value58
Quality81
Growth66
Stability78
Investment100

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)73.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)61.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)72.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 74

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.7/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.6/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+65.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.02)
Relative Strength vs Sector+62.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.514
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P73
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P80
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P70
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 57 relative to sector peers57/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 74th percentileP74
Blended score: 80% fundamental (57) + 20% ML (74) = 60.060.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 20% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade A
SHAP feature alignment: +1.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.4pt (ML 18pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #22 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BLBD61.614.99.9%8.7%$1.9B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

CEO
John Wyskiel
Employees
1,945
Beta
1.43
Industry
Auto - Manufacturers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.4%
High: $62.9
From 52W Low
+95.9%
Low: $30.04
Moving Averages
10-Day
$60.00
Below
20-Day
$57.00
Above
50-Day
$52.50
Above
200-Day
$50.40
Above
60-Day Support
$46.14
60-Day Resistance
$62.9
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 81/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+16.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.68%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
34
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$333M$409M$398M$359M
Gross Profit$71M$86M$86M$71M
Operating Income$38M$50M$50M$34M
Net Income$31M$36M$36M$26M
EPS (Diluted)$0.94$1.11$1.12$0.79
Gross Margin21.4%21.1%21.6%19.7%
Operating Margin11.3%12.3%12.6%9.4%
Net Margin9.2%8.9%9.2%7.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 14.9Earnings quality grade BValuation below sector median (P/E 14.9)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 76/100Score impact: -1.7pt

Volume
78
480K avg/day
Dollar Vol
86
$29M/day
Float
61
31M shares
Mkt Cap
58
$1.9B
Range
100
108% spread
Composite Liquidity Score76/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.31$28.9067.5%Wide
2022$7.14$22.10102.4%Wide
2023$10.84$28.8090.6%Wide
2024$24.09$59.4084.6%Wide
2025$30.04$61.9569.4%Wide
3-Year Range
140.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.7%
Outstanding Shares
32M
Bid-Ask Spread
108.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.