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PRGS

💻 Technology

Progress Software Corporation

Conservative #781Aggressive #878Moderate RiskHigh 94
$41.01+0.10%
Day High$42.30
Day Low$40.72
Volume1.5M
Mkt Cap$1.8B
52W Low $3552W High $66
Market Cap
$1.7B
P/E Ratio
23.7
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
29.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
6.9%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.78

Why This Score

PRGS scores 42.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 15.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (94/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.78) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-1.1 points) applied. PRGS's rank of #781 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.6
Fundamental Score44.1
ML Score22.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
60.6
6 Month
67.7
Primary
1 Year
71.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-221.6%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
39.7
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-1.1
Final
42.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)38.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.7% to +2.4%
Medium-term
-2.1% to +4.0%
Long-term
-2.6% to +5.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 22

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.5/100
Target Upside+45.5%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-12.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.64)
Relative Strength vs Sector-36.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.6)
Momentum Quality-0.190
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P88
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P50
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P90
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 70th percentileP70
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (67.6) + 9% ML (70.5) + SHAP(+2.4) = 70.3
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 9.3%. Max drawdown 43% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -33% (-5.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.7B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.9pt (conviction=94)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-221.6%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.8x — elevated balance sheet risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 7.4% (original: 8.3%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #177 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PRGS42.623.729.8%7.5%$1.7B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy13 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 5Sell: 1
Price Target
$60consensus
Low $45Median $60High $75
+46.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Progress Software Corporation develops, deploys, and manages business applications. The company offers OpenEdge, a development software, which builds multi-language applications for secure deployment across various platforms and devices, as well as cloud; developer tools that consists of components for user interface development for Web, mobile, desktop, chat, and AR/VR apps, as well as automated application testing and reporting tools; Sitefinity, a web content management and customer analytics platform; Corticon, a business rules management system that provides applications with decision automation and change process, and decision-related insight capabilities. It also offers DataDirect Connect, which provides data connectivity using industry-standard interfaces to connect applications running on various platforms; MOVEit that offers secure collaboration and automated file transfers of critical business information; Chef, an infrastructure automation platform to build, deploy, manage, and secure applications in multi-cloud and hybrid environments, and on-premises; and WhatsUp Gold, a network monitoring solution. In addition, the company provides Kemp LoadMaster, a load balancing solutions; and Kemp Flowmon network performance monitoring and diagnostic solutions that collect and analyze network telemetry from various sources. Further, it provides project management, implementation, custom development, programming, and other services, as well as web-enable applications; and training services. The company sells its products to end users, independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, and system integrators. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

CEO
Yogesh K. Gupta
Employees
2,815
Beta
0.58
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-37.4%
High: $65.5
From 52W Low
+18.6%
Low: $34.57
Moving Averages
10-Day
$38.40
Above
20-Day
$39.90
Above
50-Day
$41.50
Below
200-Day
$47.20
Below
60-Day Support
$34.57
60-Day Resistance
$47.25
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 14/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-8.61%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.67x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$253M$250M$237M$238M
Gross Profit$206M$202M$190M$192M
Operating Income$38M$44M$39M$32M
Net Income$26M$19M$17M$11M
EPS (Diluted)$0.59$0.44$0.39$0.24
Gross Margin81.6%81.0%80.1%80.6%
Operating Margin15.2%17.6%16.3%13.6%
Net Margin10.2%7.8%7.2%4.6%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 23.7Revenue growth 29.8%Valuation below sector median (P/E 23.7)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 82/100Score impact: -3.1pt

Volume
92
800K avg/day
Dollar Vol
88
$33M/day
Float
72
42M shares
Mkt Cap
55
$1.7B
Range
100
89% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 27/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$41.06$53.9927.2%Moderate
2022$40.33$54.2329.4%Moderate
2023$49.02$62.3423.9%Narrow
2024$48.00$70.5638.1%Wide
2025$39.00$65.7351%Wide
3-Year Range
57.6%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.8%
Outstanding Shares
43M
Bid-Ask Spread
89.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.