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25

PRAA

🏦 Financial Services

PRA Group, Inc.

Conservative #1177Aggressive #707Moderate RiskML↑ 17pt
$15.75+24.31%
Day High$16.51
Day Low$14.50
Volume2.1M
Mkt Cap$614M
52W Low $1052W High $22
Market Cap
$608M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
37.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
184.6%
Profit Margin
-29.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

PRAA scores 25.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score25.8
Fundamental Score33.6
ML Score13.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
43.9
6 Month
49.0
Primary
1 Year
51.6

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality — significant fundamental weaknesses

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
59
Grade Clow dollar volume, small cap
Base
24.4
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.4
Divergence
-0.8
Final
25.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

46AVG
Value50
Quality3
Growth100
Stability62
Investment15

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)29.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.2% to +1.0%
Medium-term
-4.5% to +1.8%
Long-term
-5.7% to +2.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 13

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score59.6/100
Target Upside+147.8%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-11.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.76)
Relative Strength vs Sector-57.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality-0.253
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P90
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P26
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P5
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 34 relative to sector peers34/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 13th percentileP13
Blended score: 80% fundamental (34) + 20% ML (13) = 29.529.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 47% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered — see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 21pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #291 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PRAA25.8N/A37.8%-29.3%$608M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

PRA Group, Inc., a financial and business services company, engages in the purchase, collection, and management of portfolios of nonperforming loans in the Americas, Australia, and Europe. It is involved in the purchase of accounts that are primarily the unpaid obligations of individuals owed to credit originators, which include banks and other types of consumer, retail, and auto finance companies. The company also acquires nonperforming loans, including Visa and MasterCard credit cards, private label and other credit cards, installment loans, lines of credit, deficiency balances of various types, legal judgments, and trade payables from banks, credit unions, consumer finance companies, retailers, utilities, automobile finance companies, and other credit originators. In addition, it provides fee-based services on class action claims recoveries and by servicing consumer bankruptcy accounts. The company was formerly known as Portfolio Recovery Associates, Inc. and changed its name to PRA Group, Inc. in October 2014. PRA Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Norfolk, Virginia.

CEO
Martin Sjolund
Employees
2,991
Beta
1.29
Industry
Financial - Credit Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
76.4
Overbought
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-29%
High: $22.17
From 52W Low
+53.7%
Low: $10.25
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.70
Above
20-Day
$11.70
Above
50-Day
$14.70
Above
200-Day
$15.30
Above
60-Day Support
$10.25
60-Day Resistance
$18.37
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 69/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
+2.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.38%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.54x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap Up

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone RSI overbought
$14.11
Stop Entry Now Target
$22.84
Entry Zone
$14.55 – $15.14
SMA50 pullback zone ($14.55–$15.14)
Exit Target
$22.17
52-week high / +22% target ($22.17)
Stop Level
$14.99
Below SMA200 ($14.99)

Stage 2 uptrend — institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$325M$314M$291M$272M
Gross Profit$367M$200M$176M$162M
Operating Income$126M$-316M$85M$75M
Net Income$57M$-408M$42M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$1.47$-10.43$1.08$0.09
Gross Margin112.9%63.6%60.7%59.6%
Operating Margin38.7%-100.4%29.3%27.4%
Net Margin17.4%-129.8%14.6%1.3%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 37.8%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade C — 59/100Score impact: -12.1pt

Volume
73
428K avg/day
Dollar Vol
43
$4M/day
Float
65
35M shares
Mkt Cap
21
$608M
Range
100
123% spread
Composite Liquidity Score59/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
90.4%
Outstanding Shares
39M
Bid-Ask Spread
123.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.