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53

ACIC

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

American Coastal Insurance Corporation

Conservative #524Aggressive #961Low RiskFโ†‘ 23pt
$11.39+0.26%
Day High$11.43
Day Low$11.13
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$555M
52W Low $1052W High $13
Market Cap
$550M
P/E Ratio
5.0
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
13.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
41.1%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.49

Why This Score

ACIC scores 53.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 35.7% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 31.9%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 5.0x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -16.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ACIC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.7
Fundamental Score70.2
ML Score48.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
51.5
6 Month
57.5
Primary
1 Year
60.5

Quality Assessment

A
Quality Grade
Excellent quality โ€” strong profitability, low leverage, no flags

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
30
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
35
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
50.8
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-1.1
Final
53.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

83AVG
Value89
Quality88
Growth83
Stability85
Investment68

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)92.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)63.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)45.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-7.8% to -2.9%
Medium-term
-10.7% to -3.5%
Long-term
-13.6% to -4.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 48

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-82.3%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score30.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-9.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.43)
Relative Strength vs Sector-11.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.5)
Momentum Quality-0.025
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
24%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P73
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P97
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P92
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 48th percentileP48
Blended score: 80% fundamental (70) + 20% ML (48) = 65.865.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 13% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade A
SHAP feature alignment: +3.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -1.1pt (ML 22pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #163 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ACIC53.75.013.1%31.9%$550M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold5 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 3Sell: 1
Price Target
$2consensus
Low $2Median $2High $2
-83.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

American Coastal Insurance Corporation operates as a property and casualty insurance holding company that sources, writes, and services residential personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance policies in the United States. The company offers structure, content, and liability coverage for standard single-family homeowners, renters, and condominium unit owners. It also provides commercial multi-peril property insurance for residential condominium associations and apartments, as well as loss or damage to buildings, inventory, and equipment caused by fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism. In addition, the company offers equipment breakdown, identity theft, cyber security, and flood policies. The company markets and distributes its products through a network of independent agencies. The company was formerly known as United Insurance Holdings Corp. and changed its name to American Coastal Insurance Corporation in August 2023. American Coastal Insurance Corporation was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.

CEO
Bennett Bradford Martz
Employees
65
Beta
-0.63
Industry
Insurance - Property & Casualty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-12.9%
High: $13.08
From 52W Low
+14.2%
Low: $9.97
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.10
Above
20-Day
$11.10
Above
50-Day
$11.50
Below
200-Day
$11.30
Above
60-Day Support
$10.31
60-Day Resistance
$13.06
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 28/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.23%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.8x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
2
Confidence: 80%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$10.93
Stop Entry Now Target
$11.73
No Entry
โ€”
No new entry โ€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$11.39
Reduce at current price ($11.39)
Stop Level
$11.27
Below SMA50 ($11.27)

Stage 3 distribution โ€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$86M$90M$86M$72M
Gross Profit$76M$54M$46M$37M
Operating Income$37M$42M$38M$26M
Net Income$27M$32M$26M$21M
EPS (Diluted)$0.53$0.65$0.53$0.43
Gross Margin88.5%60.1%53.5%51.1%
Operating Margin42.4%46.9%43.5%36.3%
Net Margin30.8%36.0%30.6%29.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 5.0Revenue growth 13.1%Profit margin 31.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 5.0)

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 35/100Score impact: +7.4pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
40
170K avg/day
Dollar Vol
10
$2M/day
Float
52
22M shares
Mkt Cap
30
$550M
Range
50
32% spread
Composite Liquidity Score35/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 2/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$2.76$8.1698.9%Wide
2022$0.29$4.71176.6%Wide
2023$0.92$10.28167.1%Wide
2024$8.82$15.0852.4%Wide
2025$9.97$13.5030.1%Moderate
3-Year Range
177%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
45.5%
Outstanding Shares
49M
Bid-Ask Spread
32.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.