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44

JD

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

JD.com, Inc.

Conservative #738Aggressive #507Moderate RiskHigh 94
$27.54+0.07%
Day High$27.59
Day Low$27.21
Volume4.5M
Mkt Cap$39.1B
52W Low $2752W High $46
Market Cap
$40.0B
P/E Ratio
8.8
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
6.8%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
71.1%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.38

Why This Score

JD scores 44.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 17.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 8.8x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (94/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -14.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, JD would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.0
Fundamental Score48.3
ML Score77.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.6
6 Month
76.6
Primary
1 Year
80.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
42.1
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.4
Divergence
-2.1
Final
44.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

74AVG
Value95
Quality55
Growth90
Stability75
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)45.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.6% to +5.1%
Medium-term
+1.6% to +8.4%
Long-term
+2.6% to +11.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 77

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.0/100
Target Upside+36.3%
Coverage44 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score47.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-20.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.38)
Relative Strength vs Sector-34.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.5)
Momentum Quality-0.226
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
28%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P64
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P100
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 89 relative to sector peers89/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (88.8) + 9% ML (80.5) + SHAP(+3.7) = 91.7
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 7.4%. Max drawdown 32% (-9.6 pts). Price momentum -33% (-5.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($40.0B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.9pt (conviction=94)
Risk Factors
Country risk: China -14.0pt [structural: -8pt, macro: -6.0pt] (VIE structure risk, HFCAA delisting risk, regulatory seizure precedent)Country

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #64 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
JD44.08.86.8%3.6%$40.0B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy44 analysts
Buy: 31Hold: 12Sell: 1
Price Target
$37consensus
Low $32Median $38High $41
+34.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company offers computers, communication, and consumer electronics products, as well as home appliances; and general merchandise products comprising food, beverage and fresh produce, baby and maternity products, furniture and household goods, cosmetics and other personal care items, pharmaceutical and healthcare products, industrial products, books, automobile accessories, apparel and footwear, bags, and jewelry. It also provides online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. In addition, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services; and engages in online retail business. Further, it provides integrated data, technology, business, and user management industry solutions to support the digitization of enterprises and institutions; and technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

CEO
Ran Xu
Employees
570,895
Beta
0.41
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
49.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-40.7%
High: $46.45
From 52W Low
+3.1%
Low: $26.72
Moving Averages
10-Day
$27.50
Above
20-Day
$27.90
Below
50-Day
$28.70
Below
200-Day
$31.60
Below
60-Day Support
$26.72
60-Day Resistance
$30.98
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 15/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-12.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-8.56%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.78x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
97
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$299.1B$356.7B$301.1B$347.0B
Gross Profit$28.5B$56.6B$47.8B$33.0B
Operating Income$-1.1B$-859M$10.5B$8.5B
Net Income$5.3B$6.2B$10.9B$9.9B
EPS (Diluted)$3.38$4.14$7.18$6.48
Gross Margin9.5%15.9%15.9%9.5%
Operating Margin-0.4%-0.2%3.5%2.4%
Net Margin1.8%1.7%3.6%2.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 8.8Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 8.8)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 99/100Score impact: -26.5pt

Volume
100
9.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$255M/day
Float
100
1.3B shares
Mkt Cap
94
$40.0B
Range
97
74% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$61.65$98.7046.2%Wide
2022$33.17$81.2484%Wide
2023$24.01$67.1094.6%Wide
2024$20.82$47.8278.7%Wide
2025$28.21$46.4548.9%Wide
3-Year Range
105.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
90.1%
Outstanding Shares
1.4B
Bid-Ask Spread
74.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.