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33

NTGR

💻 Technology

NETGEAR, Inc.

Conservative #1016Aggressive #1234Moderate RiskHigh 95
$20.69+1.87%
Day High$20.82
Day Low$20.30
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$588M
52W Low $1952W High $37
Market Cap
$593M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
2.9%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-365.6%
Profit Margin
-4.7%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.08

Why This Score

NTGR scores 33.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.08) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (95/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (14.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. NTGR's rank of #1016 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score33.4
Fundamental Score32.3
ML Score28.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
39.9
6 Month
44.6
Primary
1 Year
46.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
65
Grade B
Base
29.4
SHAP
+1.0
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+2.5
Final
33.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)41.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-6.0% to -1.3%
Medium-term
-8.6% to -1.7%
Long-term
-11.3% to -2.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 28

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.4/100
Target Upside+88.8%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+2.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.86)
Relative Strength vs Sector-20.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality-0.100
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P26
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P6
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 49th percentileP49
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (51.5) + 9% ML (47.7) + SHAP(+1.2) = 52.4
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.4%. Max drawdown 40% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -17% (-2.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.0pt (conviction=95)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (109.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #231 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NTGR33.4N/A2.9%-4.7%$593M
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold17 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 12
Price Target
$38consensus
Low $36Median $38High $40
+83.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

NETGEAR, Inc. designs, develops, and markets networking and Internet connected products for consumers, businesses, and service providers. The company operates in two segments, Connected Home, and Small and Medium Business. It offers smart home/connected home/broadband access products, such as Wi-Fi routers and home Wi-Fi systems, broadband modems, Wi-Fi gateways, Wi-Fi hotspots, Wi-Fi range extenders, Powerline adapters and bridges, Wi-Fi network adapters, and digital canvasses; and value-added service offerings, including technical support, parental controls, and cybersecurity protection. The company also provides Ethernet switches, Wi-Fi mesh systems and access points, local and remote unified storage products, and Internet security appliances for small and medium-sized businesses, as well as education, hospitality and health markets. It markets and sells its products through traditional retailers, online retailers, wholesale distributors, direct market resellers, value-added resellers, and broadband service providers, as well as through its direct online store at www.netgear.com. in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Charles J. Prober
Employees
636
Beta
1.16
Industry
Communication Equipment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-43.9%
High: $36.86
From 52W Low
+10.3%
Low: $18.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.80
Below
20-Day
$20.70
Below
50-Day
$22.30
Below
200-Day
$27.10
Below
60-Day Support
$19
60-Day Resistance
$27.34
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 16/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-23.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.71%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
68
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$176M$185M$171M$162M
Gross Profit$58M$72M$64M$56M
Operating Income$-6M$-7M$-10M$-13M
Net Income$-16M$-5M$-6M$-6M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.54$-0.17$-0.22$-0.21
Gross Margin33.1%39.1%37.5%34.8%
Operating Margin-3.2%-3.8%-5.6%-7.9%
Net Margin-8.9%-2.6%-3.8%-3.7%

Why This Stock

TechnologyValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B — 65/100Score impact: -10.9pt

Volume
79
495K avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
56
26M shares
Mkt Cap
31
$593M
Range
100
97% spread
Composite Liquidity Score65/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$26.07$45.1253.5%Wide
2022$17.40$31.0056.2%Wide
2023$10.40$20.9067.1%Wide
2024$10.48$31.55100.3%Wide
2025$18.75$36.8665.1%Wide
3-Year Range
112%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
91.2%
Outstanding Shares
28M
Bid-Ask Spread
97.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.