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30

ADTN

💻 Technology

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #1105Aggressive #906Moderate RiskModerate 64ML↑ 18pt
$10.69+1.04%
Day High$10.94
Day Low$10.58
Volume1.6M
Mkt Cap$856M
52W Low $752W High $12
Market Cap
$807M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
N/A
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Profit Margin
-8.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.72

Why This Score

ADTN scores 30.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.72) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. ADTN's rank of #1105 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score30.3
Fundamental Score30.5
ML Score30.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.1
6 Month
61.6
Primary
1 Year
64.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (213.7%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
70
Grade B
Base
29.5
SHAP
+1.0
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-1.1
Final
30.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)57.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage88%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.6% to +2.4%
Medium-term
-2.0% to +4.1%
Long-term
-2.4% to +5.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 30

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.0/100
Target Upside+67.6%
Coverage25 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-12.2%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.52)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality-0.032
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
40%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P20
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P64
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (46.9) + 9% ML (61.1) + SHAP(+1.0) = 49.2—
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 11.4%. Max drawdown 24% (-6.4 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.1pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (213.7%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.7x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #246 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ADTN30.3N/AN/A-8.5%$807M
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy25 analysts
Buy: 11Hold: 10Sell: 4
Price Target
$17consensus
Low $10Median $13High $28
+59.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. The company offers fiber access and fiber to the node platforms; transceivers, cables, and other miscellaneous materials; passive optical network optical line terminals; fiber to the distribution point Gfast distribution point units; cabinet and outside plant enclosures and services; packet optical transports; fixed wireless access platforms; and network management and subscriber services, and control and orchestration software. It also provides broadband customer premises solutions, ethernet switches and routers, residential gateways, cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms, virtual wireless local area networks, Internet of Things gateways, pre-sale and post-sale technical support, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways. In addition, the company offers time division multiplexed and asynchronous transfer mode-based aggregation systems and customer devices; and high-bit-rate and asymmetric digital subscriber line, and other technologies. Further, it provides other access and aggregation, subscriber and experience, and traditional and other products, software, and services. Additionally, the company engages in the provision of planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services to implement customer network solutions; and customer devices solutions into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

CEO
Thomas Richard Stanton
Employees
3,091
Beta
1.41
Industry
Communication Equipment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
71.0
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.1%
High: $12.44
From 52W Low
+54.3%
Low: $6.93
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.20
Above
20-Day
$9.90
Above
50-Day
$9.30
Above
200-Day
$9.00
Above
60-Day Support
$7.75
60-Day Resistance
$10.95
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 34/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+18.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.84%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.12x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
36
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$279M$265M$248M$243M
Gross Profit$107M$99M$95M$91M
Operating Income$-3M$-13M$-4M$-15M
Net Income$-10M$-21M$-11M$-46M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.13$-0.26$-0.14$-0.58
Gross Margin38.3%37.3%38.4%37.6%
Operating Margin-1.0%-5.0%-1.6%-6.2%
Net Margin-3.7%-7.7%-4.5%-18.9%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade B — 70/100Score impact: -13.1pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
65
$12M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
36
$807M
Range
100
80% spread
Composite Liquidity Score70/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.28$24.7647.4%Wide
2022$16.30$25.4743.9%Wide
2023$4.91$20.21121.8%Wide
2024$4.34$9.2171.9%Wide
2025$6.93$12.4456.9%Wide
3-Year Range
129.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
80.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.