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43

HLIT

💻 Technology

Harmonic Inc.

Conservative #766Aggressive #1267Low RiskMixed 41ML↑ 30pt
$10.34-0.96%
Day High$10.56
Day Low$10.22
Volume1.3M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $852W High $12
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-46.9%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-210.4%
Profit Margin
-12.0%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
0.39

Why This Score

HLIT scores 43.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-5.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.1
Fundamental Score49.0
ML Score25.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.6
6 Month
76.7
Primary
1 Year
80.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-820.9%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
69
Grade B
Base
40.5
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-1.4
Final
43.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.5% to +5.0%
Medium-term
-1.9% to +7.8%
Long-term
-2.4% to +10.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 25

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.8/100
Target Upside+19.3%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-7.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.5)
Momentum Quality+0.032
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
58%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P1
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P75
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-1.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (51.2) + 9% ML (78.4) + SHAP(+3.1) = 56.7—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.5%. Max drawdown 11% (-1.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.2B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.9pt (conviction=41)—
Divergence penalty: -2.9pt (ML 30pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-820.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #171 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HLIT43.1N/A-46.9%-12.0%$1.2B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold19 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 10
Price Target
$13consensus
Low $11Median $13High $14
+20.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provide video delivery software, products, system solutions, and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Video and Cable Access. The Video segment sells video processing, production, and playout solutions and services to cable operators, and satellite and telecommunications Pay-TV service providers, as well as to broadcast and media, including streaming media companies. This segment's video processing appliance solutions include network management and application software, and hardware products, such as encoders, video servers, high-density stream processing systems, and edge processors. This segment also provides software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions, which enables the packaging and delivery of streaming services, including live streaming, video-on-demand, catch-up TV, start-over TV, network-DVR, and cloud-DVR services through HTTP streaming to various device along with dynamic and personal ad insertion. The Cable Access segment offers CableOS software-based cable access solutions; and CableOS central cloud services primarily to cable operators. Its products enable customers to create, prepare, store, playout, and deliver a range of broadcast and streaming video services to consumer devices, including televisions, personal computers, laptops, tablets, and smart phones. The company also provides technical support and professional services, such as maintenance and support, consulting, implementation, program management, technical design and planning, building and site preparation, integration and equipment installation, end-to-end system testing, and training. It sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through independent resellers and systems integrators. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Nimrod Ben-Natan
Employees
901
Beta
1.05
Industry
Communication Equipment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
60.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.1%
High: $12.18
From 52W Low
+32.6%
Low: $7.8
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.50
Below
20-Day
$10.20
Above
50-Day
$10.10
Above
200-Day
$9.70
Above
60-Day Support
$9.27
60-Day Resistance
$12.18
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 62/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+6.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.45%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.28x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
13
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$98M$142M$138M$133M
Gross Profit$46M$77M$74M$79M
Operating Income$4M$10M$4M$10M
Net Income$-55M$3M$3M$6M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.48$0.02$0.03$0.05
Gross Margin47.0%54.2%53.5%59.0%
Operating Margin3.8%6.9%2.8%7.6%
Net Margin-55.8%1.9%2.1%4.5%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade B — 69/100Score impact: -5.8pt

Volume
100
1.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
61
$11M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
43
$1.2B
Range
88
56% spread
Composite Liquidity Score69/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$6.69$12.2258.5%Wide
2022$8.25$15.8062.8%Wide
2023$8.80$18.4370.7%Wide
2024$9.10$15.4651.8%Wide
2025$7.80$13.6854.7%Wide
3-Year Range
81.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
56.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.