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NATH

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Nathan's Famous, Inc.

Conservative #836Aggressive #1092Low Risk
$100.77+0.00%
Day High$101.01
Day Low$100.59
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$413M
52W Low $8852W High $119
Market Cap
$414M
P/E Ratio
19.3
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
6.9%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
22.5%
Profit Margin
13.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

NATH scores 42.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -3.62) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (86/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, NATH would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.2
Fundamental Score62.7
ML Score65.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.4
6 Month
89.8
Primary
1 Year
94.6

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.14) with 13.6% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low float, low volume
Base
38.2
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.1
Final
42.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value71.05
Quality53
Growth64
Stability80
Investment91

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)55.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 65

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+3.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.07)
Relative Strength vs Sector+2.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality+0.029
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P65
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P67
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P42
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
Blended score: 80% fundamental (63) + 20% ML (65) = 63.263.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.14) with 13.6% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backedFlag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #76 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NATH42.219.36.9%13.6%$414M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Nathan's Famous, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the foodservice industry. The company owns and franchises restaurants under the Nathan's Famous brand name, as well as sells products bearing the Nathan's Famous trademarks through various channels of distribution. It also has license agreements for the manufacture, distribution, marketing, and sale of Nathan's Famous branded hot dogs, sausages, and corned beef products in refrigerated consumer packages to be resold through retail channels, such as supermarkets, groceries, mass merchandisers, and club stores; and other Nathan's Famous branded refrigerated meat products in consumer packages to be resold through retail channels. In addition, the company has license agreements to manufacture Nathan's Famous branded hot dog and sausage products in bulk for use in the food service industry; for supplying Nathan's Famous natural casing and skinless hot dogs in bulk for use in the Nathan's Famous restaurant system; to manufacture proprietary spices; to produce and distribute sauerkraut and pickles; to produce and sell French fries and onion rings for retail sale; and to produce and sell miniature bagel dogs, franks-in-a-blanket, mozzarella sticks, and other hors d'oeuvres through club stores, supermarkets, and other retail food stores. Further, the company sells Nathan's products directly to foodservice operators or to various foodservice distributors, as well as provides Arthur Treacher's brand fish fillets. As of March 27, 2022, its restaurant system consisted of four company-owned units in the New York City metropolitan area; and 239 franchised units in 18 states and 12 foreign countries. Nathan's Famous, Inc. was founded in 1916 and is based in Jericho, New York.

CEO
Eric Gatoff
Employees
147
Beta
0.33
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
40.3
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15%
High: $118.5
From 52W Low
+14.5%
Low: $88
Moving Averages
10-Day
$100.80
Below
20-Day
$101.00
Below
50-Day
$97.40
Above
200-Day
$102.60
Below
60-Day Support
$88.67
60-Day Resistance
$102.17
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 39/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-1.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.05%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
73
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$34M$46M$47M$31M
Gross Profit$10M$11M$17M$9M
Operating Income$5M$8M$13M$6M
Net Income$3M$5M$9M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.75$1.26$2.16$1.04
Gross Margin27.8%24.5%35.6%29.0%
Operating Margin14.9%16.4%27.2%20.7%
Net Margin9.0%11.4%19.0%13.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 19.3Profit margin 13.6%Earnings quality grade B

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -5.2pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
60K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$6M/day
Float
0
3M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$414M
Range
0
35% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low floatlow volumesmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
69.6%
Outstanding Shares
4M
Bid-Ask Spread
35.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.