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KRT

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Karat Packaging Inc.

Conservative #839Aggressive #990Moderate Risk
$24.89+0.61%
Day High$25.05
Day Low$24.50
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$500M
52W Low $2152W High $33
Market Cap
$508M
P/E Ratio
16.7
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
4.2%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-7.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.60

Why This Score

KRT scores 42.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (86/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, KRT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.0
Fundamental Score50.0
ML Score65.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
60.0
6 Month
67.1
Primary
1 Year
70.6

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
23
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
38.0
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.5
Final
42.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

62AVG
Value72
Quality52
Growth38
Stability69
Investment77

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)55.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.0% to +2.1%
Medium-term
-2.6% to +3.5%
Long-term
-3.2% to +4.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 65

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+32.6%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-13.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.79)
Relative Strength vs Sector-8.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality-0.055
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P53
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P74
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P34
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
Blended score: 80% fundamental (50) + 20% ML (65) = 53.053.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 28% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #77 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KRT42.016.74.2%6.7%$508M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Karat Packaging Inc. manufactures and distributes single-use disposable products in plastic, paper, biopolymer-based, and other compostable forms used in various restaurant and foodservice settings. It provides food and take-out containers, bags, tableware, cups, lids, cutlery, straws, specialty beverage ingredients, equipment, gloves, and other products under the Karat Earth brand. The company offers its products to domestic and regional distributors, restaurant chains, retail establishments, and online customers. It also provides new product development, design, printing, and logistics services. Karat Packaging Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Chino, California.

CEO
Alan Yu
Employees
683
Beta
1.06
Industry
Packaging & Containers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-23.8%
High: $32.68
From 52W Low
+20.8%
Low: $20.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.30
Below
20-Day
$25.40
Below
50-Day
$24.40
Above
200-Day
$25.60
Below
60-Day Support
$21.6
60-Day Resistance
$26.56
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 8/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-4.19%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
5
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-12)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$125M$124M$104M$102M
Gross Profit$43M$49M$41M$40M
Operating Income$9M$17M$8M$7M
Net Income$7M$11M$6M$6M
EPS (Diluted)$0.36$0.54$0.32$0.28
Gross Margin34.5%39.6%39.3%39.2%
Operating Margin6.9%13.3%7.5%7.2%
Net Margin5.9%8.8%6.2%5.5%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 16.7Valuation below sector median (P/E 16.7)

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 23/100Score impact: -16.2pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
12
85K avg/day
Dollar Vol
14
$2M/day
Float
12
9M shares
Mkt Cap
30
$508M
Range
89
59% spread
Composite Liquidity Score23/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.56$25.9149.9%Wide
2022$12.50$20.9950.7%Wide
2023$12.54$26.6972.1%Wide
2024$22.51$33.1438.2%Wide
2025$20.61$33.8948.7%Wide
3-Year Range
92%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
43.1%
Outstanding Shares
20M
Bid-Ask Spread
59.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.