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50

LOCO

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #609Aggressive #919Low Risk
$11.14+2.39%
Day High$11.19
Day Low$10.94
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$334M
52W Low $852W High $12
Market Cap
$332M
P/E Ratio
12.3
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
0.9%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
0.5%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.89

Why This Score

LOCO scores 50.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 12.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (93/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.7
Fundamental Score51.4
ML Score53.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.7
6 Month
77.9
Primary
1 Year
82.0

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
40
Grade Clow dollar volume, small cap
Base
46.7
SHAP
+2.1
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.3
Final
50.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value84
Quality38
Growth41
Stability78
Investment72

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)61.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)74.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.2% to +4.6%
Medium-term
+1.0% to +7.6%
Long-term
+1.7% to +10.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 53

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+27.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.17)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality-0.060
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
33%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P34
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P89
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P56
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 53th percentileP53
Blended score: 80% fundamental (51) + 20% ML (53) = 51.751.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 12% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.3pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #53 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LOCO50.712.30.9%5.4%$332M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. As of May 04, 2022, the company operated 480 restaurants comprising 189 company-operated and 291 franchised restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Louisiana. It also licenses one restaurant in the Philippines. The company was formerly known as Chicken Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. in April 2014. El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.

CEO
Elizabeth Goodwin Williams
Employees
4,000
Beta
0.92
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
60.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.1%
High: $11.74
From 52W Low
+34.4%
Low: $8.29
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.70
Above
20-Day
$10.60
Above
50-Day
$10.80
Above
200-Day
$10.40
Above
60-Day Support
$10.07
60-Day Resistance
$11.74
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 62/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+7.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.72%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.69x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
16
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$122M$126M$119M$114M
Gross Profit$35M$25M$24M$24M
Operating Income$11M$12M$9M$9M
Net Income$7M$7M$5M$6M
EPS (Diluted)$0.25$0.24$0.19$0.20
Gross Margin29.0%19.8%20.3%21.3%
Operating Margin9.4%9.6%7.5%7.9%
Net Margin6.1%5.6%4.6%5.2%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 12.3Valuation below sector median (P/E 12.3)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 40/100Score impact: -2.8pt

Volume
52
222K avg/day
Dollar Vol
17
$2M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
12
$332M
Range
82
44% spread
Composite Liquidity Score40/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 4/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$12.06$20.3451.1%Wide
2022$8.15$14.7957.9%Wide
2023$8.11$13.0046.3%Wide
2024$8.17$14.2554.2%Wide
2025$8.29$12.6541.6%Wide
3-Year Range
54.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
77.2%
Outstanding Shares
30M
Bid-Ask Spread
44.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.