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63

MEDP

🏥 Healthcare

Medpace Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #247Aggressive #107Moderate RiskMixed 56ML↑ 22pt
$438.08-0.93%
Day High$443.85
Day Low$425.57
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$12.4B
52W Low $25052W High $629
Market Cap
$12.1B
P/E Ratio
28.0
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
20.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
11.6%
Profit Margin
17.8%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.25

Why This Score

MEDP scores 62.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 98.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (31%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (14.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score62.8
Fundamental Score54.5
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.4
6 Month
85.4
Primary
1 Year
89.9

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
53
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
81
Grade A
Base
62.6
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+1.8
Divergence
-3.8
Final
62.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

77AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth75
Stability90
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)74.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score52.9/100
Target Upside+22.0%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score59.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+40.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.32)
Relative Strength vs Sector+6.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.2)
Momentum Quality+0.222
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P67
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P19
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P83
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 90th percentileP90
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (68.4) + 9% ML (90.4) + SHAP(+2.4) = 72.7—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.2%. Max drawdown 28% (-7.9 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($12.1B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.7pt (ML 22pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #31 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MEDP62.828.020.0%17.8%$12.1B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold17 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 11Sell: 2
Price Target
$538consensus
Low $460Median $550High $582
+22.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, and Asia. It offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various therapeutic areas. The company also provides clinical development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries; and development plan design, coordinated central laboratory, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management and analysis, pharmacovigilance new drug application submissions, and post-marketing clinical support services. In addition, it offers bio-analytical laboratory services, clinical human pharmacology, imaging services, and electrocardiography reading support for clinical trials. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.

CEO
August James Troendle
Employees
5,900
Beta
1.40
Industry
Medical - Diagnostics & Research
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
19.2
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-30.3%
High: $628.92
From 52W Low
+75.2%
Low: $250.05
Moving Averages
10-Day
$436.80
Above
20-Day
$496.00
Below
50-Day
$550.20
Below
200-Day
$475.10
Below
60-Day Support
$392.35
60-Day Resistance
$628.92
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-7.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17.69%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.58x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
11
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$708M$660M$603M$559M
Gross Profit$205M$197M$180M$178M
Operating Income$153M$142M$126M$114M
Net Income$135M$111M$90M$115M
EPS (Diluted)$4.67$3.87$3.10$3.67
Gross Margin29.0%29.8%29.8%31.9%
Operating Margin21.6%21.5%20.9%20.3%
Net Margin19.1%16.8%15.0%20.5%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 20.0%Profit margin 17.8%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 81/100Score impact: -0.4pt

Volume
60
297K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$132M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
81
$12.1B
Range
100
152% spread
Composite Liquidity Score81/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$148.56$231.0043.4%Wide
2022$126.95$235.7260%Wide
2023$167.00$317.5762.1%Wide
2024$277.72$459.7749.4%Wide
2025$250.05$626.2685.9%Wide
3-Year Range
115.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
152.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.