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HTLD

🏭 Industrials

Heartland Express, Inc.

Conservative #863Aggressive #1174Low Risk
$11.09+3.94%
Day High$11.21
Day Low$10.76
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$859M
52W Low $752W High $12
Market Cap
$911M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-23.1%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-76.5%
Profit Margin
-6.5%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.21

Why This Score

HTLD scores 40.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (10%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (98/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. HTLD's rank of #863 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.6
Fundamental Score40.2
ML Score32.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
44.5
6 Month
49.7
Primary
1 Year
52.3

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality — significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (241.8%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
69
Grade B
Base
36.6
SHAP
+1.1
Factors
+0.2
Conviction
+2.7
Final
40.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

34AVG
Value50
Quality5
Growth0
Stability79
Investment34

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)48.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-6.9% to -0.0%
Medium-term
-10.3% to -0.0%
Long-term
-13.7% to -0.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 32

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-3.0%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-21.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.32)
Relative Strength vs Sector-0.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.085
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P1
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P18
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 40 relative to sector peers40/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 32th percentileP32
Blended score: 80% fundamental (40) + 20% ML (32) = 38.638.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered — see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.7pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (241.8%) — earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #89 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HTLD40.6N/A-23.1%-6.5%$911M
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a short-to-medium haul truckload carrier in the United States and Canada. It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload service for shippers from Washington to Florida and New England to California; and temperature-controlled truckload services. The company offers its services under the Heartland Express and Millis Transfer brand names. It primarily serves retailers and manufacturers in consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.

CEO
Michael J. Gerdin
Employees
5,220
Beta
1.15
Industry
Trucking
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-8.6%
High: $12.13
From 52W Low
+58.4%
Low: $7
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.20
Below
20-Day
$11.20
Below
50-Day
$10.40
Above
200-Day
$8.90
Above
60-Day Support
$7.79
60-Day Resistance
$12.13
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 77/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+24.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.52%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.01x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
58
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$179M$197M$210M$219M
Gross Profit$-4M$-781,999$-1M$-2M
Operating Income$-16M$-14M$-15M$-17M
Net Income$-19M$-8M$-11M$-14M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.25$-0.11$-0.14$-0.18
Gross Margin-2.2%-0.4%-0.6%-0.7%
Operating Margin-8.9%-7.1%-7.2%-7.6%
Net Margin-10.8%-4.2%-5.2%-6.3%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B — 69/100Score impact: -17.0pt

Volume
84
609K avg/day
Dollar Vol
53
$7M/day
Float
74
44M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$911M
Range
97
73% spread
Composite Liquidity Score69/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.71$20.0724.4%Narrow
2022$12.78$17.3230.2%Moderate
2023$11.44$18.1745.5%Wide
2024$9.63$14.3039%Wide
2025$7.00$12.1954.1%Wide
3-Year Range
88.8%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
56.6%
Outstanding Shares
77M
Bid-Ask Spread
73.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.