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68

NSSC

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Napco Security Technologies, Inc.

Conservative #162Aggressive #847Low RiskMLโ†‘ 23pt
$46.65-1.23%
Day High$47.30
Day Low$46.22
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$1.7B
52W Low $1952W High $48
Market Cap
$1.7B
P/E Ratio
34.5
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
-3.8%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-12.9%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

NSSC scores 68.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 27.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 24.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. NSSC's rank of #162 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score68.9
Fundamental Score68.2
ML Score62.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.0
6 Month
89.4
Primary
1 Year
94.1

Quality Assessment

A
Quality Grade
Excellent quality โ€” strong profitability, low leverage, no flags

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
68
Grade B
Base
64.9
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.5
Final
68.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value34
Quality83
Growth27
Stability79
Investment61

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)59.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+8.9% to +14.8%
Medium-term
+12.9% to +21.8%
Long-term
+18.8% to +31.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 62

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.2/100
Target Upside+4.8%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.8%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+66.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.20)
Relative Strength vs Sector+72.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.694
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
14%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P20
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P36
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P50
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 62th percentileP62
Blended score: 80% fundamental (68) + 20% ML (62) = 67.067.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 16% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade A
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #14 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
IESC67.830.916.9%9.1%$9.7B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells electronic security products in the United States and internationally. The company offers access control systems, door-locking products, intrusion and fire alarm systems, and video surveillance systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications. Its access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. The company's alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. It also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. The company markets and sells its products primarily to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.

CEO
Richard L. Soloway
Employees
1,070
Beta
1.48
Industry
Security & Protection Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
68.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.1%
High: $48.12
From 52W Low
+145.5%
Low: $19
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.10
Above
20-Day
$43.50
Above
50-Day
$42.00
Above
200-Day
$37.30
Above
60-Day Support
$36.56
60-Day Resistance
$47.3
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 89/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+25.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17.16%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.35x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$48M$49M$51M$44M
Gross Profit$28M$28M$27M$25M
Operating Income$15M$14M$12M$11M
Net Income$14M$12M$12M$10M
EPS (Diluted)$0.38$0.34$0.32$0.28
Gross Margin58.6%56.6%52.8%57.2%
Operating Margin30.6%27.7%23.8%25.4%
Net Margin28.0%24.7%22.9%23.0%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsProfit margin 24.7%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 68/100Score impact: +6.0pt

Volume
73
433K avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$20M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
53
$1.7B
Range
100
153% spread
Composite Liquidity Score68/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.33$26.0051.6%Wide
2022$15.39$31.3068.2%Wide
2023$17.76$41.2579.6%Wide
2024$31.27$58.0960%Wide
2025$19.00$48.1286.8%Wide
3-Year Range
106.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
slight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
153.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.