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FER

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Ferrovial SE

Conservative #6Aggressive #12Low RiskLow 7MLโ†‘ 32pt
$72.63-0.48%
Day High$72.75
Day Low$71.67
Volume1.3M
Mkt Cap$52.3B
52W Low $4052W High $75
Market Cap
$51.9B
P/E Ratio
12.2
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
7.4%
Sector avg: 18.9%
Earnings Growth
892.3%
Profit Margin
35.3%
Sector avg: -47.9%
Debt/Equity
1.90

Why This Score

FER scores 83.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 53.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 35.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 12.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.1% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (97/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.90) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-0.8 points) applied. FER's rank of #6 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score83.7
Fundamental Score76.5
ML Score97.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.0
6 Month
92.7
Primary
1 Year
97.6

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
100
Grade A
Base
80.5
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-0.8
Final
83.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

74AVG
Value85
Quality95
Growth90
Stability45
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)78.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)93.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+11.9% to +18.1%
Medium-term
+17.4% to +26.6%
Long-term
+28.4% to +41.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 97

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+31.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector+54.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.627
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P59
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P66
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P46
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 95th percentileP95
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (63.9) + 9% ML (95.4) + SHAP(+3.7) = 70.4โ€”
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.1%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($51.9B market cap)+3.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.1pt (conviction=7)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -3.2pt (ML 32pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (892%) massively exceeds revenue growth (7.4%) โ€” earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 120x โ€” earnings quality suspect; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.9x โ€” elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #1 of 136 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
GLDD65.614.329.4%9.7%$1.2B
Sector Average44.964.518.9%-47.9%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ferrovial SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, construction, financing, operation, and maintenance of transport infrastructure and urban services internationally. It operates through four segments: Construction, Toll Roads, Airports, and Energy Infrastructures and Mobility. The company designs and executes various public and private works, including the construction of public infrastructure; and develops, finances, and operates toll roads. It also develops, finances, and operates airports; and develops, finances, and operates power transmission lines and renewable energy generation plants, as well as offers mobility and waste management plants and services to the mining industry in Chile. In addition, the company promotes, constructs, and operates energy generation and transmission infrastructures. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

CEO
Ignacio Madridejos Fernandez
Employees
25,264
Beta
0.74
Industry
Engineering & Construction
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
67.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.9%
High: $74.79
From 52W Low
+79.5%
Low: $40.46
Moving Averages
10-Day
$72.80
Below
20-Day
$71.20
Above
50-Day
$68.50
Above
200-Day
$59.70
Above
60-Day Support
$64.31
60-Day Resistance
$74.79
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 60/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+21.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+12.92%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.43x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-12)Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024
Revenue$2.2B$2.2B$2.4B$2.4B
Gross Profit$2.0B$2.0B$2.1B$2.1B
Operating Income$353M$353M$1.3B$1.3B
Net Income$270M$270M$1.4B$1.4B
EPS (Diluted)$0.37$0.37$1.95$1.95
Gross Margin88.3%88.3%85.9%85.9%
Operating Margin15.8%15.8%52.4%52.4%
Net Margin12.1%12.1%57.9%57.9%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 12.2Profit margin 35.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 100/100Score impact: +2.2pt

Volume
100
2.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$174M/day
Float
100
459M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$51.9B
Range
100
85% spread
Composite Liquidity Score100/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 12/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$24.91$32.2025.5%Moderate
2022$22.00$28.2524.9%Narrow
2023$3.06$38.07170.2%Wide
2024$35.30$48.2931.1%Moderate
2025$40.07$68.0951.8%Wide
3-Year Range
182.8%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
63.8%
Outstanding Shares
720M
Bid-Ask Spread
85.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.