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46

NWPX

🏭 Industrials

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.

Conservative #668Aggressive #637Low RiskHigh 100
Market Cap
$718M
P/E Ratio
20.1
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
10.8%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
62.3%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.34

Why This Score

NWPX scores 46.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, NWPX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score46.4
Fundamental Score60.3
ML Score46.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.8
6 Month
74.6
Primary
1 Year
78.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
33
Grade Dlow volume, low float
Base
42.4
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-0.0
Final
46.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)91.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)55.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.2% to +6.9%
Medium-term
+4.3% to +11.5%
Long-term
+6.3% to +16.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 46

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside-3.0%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score59.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+28.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.59)
Relative Strength vs Sector+57.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.633
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
13%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P69
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P74
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 76 relative to sector peers76/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (75.9) + 9% ML (78.3) + SHAP(+4.3) = 80.5
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 9.2%. Max drawdown 9% (-0.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-83.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #66 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NWPX46.420.110.8%7.0%$718M
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for NWPX.

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 20.1Revenue growth 10.8%Valuation below sector median (P/E 20.1)

Tradability FilterGrade D — 33/100Score impact: -20.1pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
8
74K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$5M/day
Float
14
9M shares
Mkt Cap
34
$718M
Range
100
109% spread
Composite Liquidity Score33/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.11$38.0848.9%Wide
2022$24.30$37.6243%Wide
2023$25.58$40.6045.4%Wide
2024$27.89$57.7669.7%Wide
2025$36.97$65.8456.2%Wide
3-Year Range
88.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.9%
Outstanding Shares
10M
Bid-Ask Spread
109.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.