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ULH

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #1386Aggressive #1076Moderate Risk
$16.39+6.22%
Day High$16.77
Day Low$15.09
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$432M
52W Low $1352W High $31
Market Cap
$441M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
11.1%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
39.8%
Profit Margin
-2.5%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
1.62

Why This Score

ULH scores 7.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (99/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.62) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -25.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ULH would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score7.7
Fundamental Score25.5
ML Score44.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
41.6
6 Month
46.5
Primary
1 Year
48.9

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (585.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
35
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low dollar volume, low volume
Base
4.2
SHAP
+1.5
Factors
+0.4
Conviction
+2.1
Divergence
-0.5
Final
7.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

45AVG
Value50
Quality13
Growth81
Stability51
Investment28

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)33.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to -0.8%
Medium-term
-7.8% to -1.0%
Long-term
-10.3% to -1.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 44

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+11.9%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score34.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.4%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.94)
Relative Strength vs Sector-50.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality-0.228
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P71
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P8
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 26 relative to sector peers26/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 44th percentileP44
Blended score: 80% fundamental (26) + 20% ML (44) = 29.229.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 42% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.5pt (ML 19pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (585.9%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #133 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ULH7.7N/A11.1%-2.5%$441M
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold4 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 3
Price Target
$17consensus
Low $17Median $17High $17
+3.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. provides transportation and logistics solutions in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Colombia. It offers truckload services, which include dry van, flatbed, heavy-haul, and refrigerated operations; domestic and international freight forwarding, and customs brokerage services; and final mile and ground expedite services. The company transports various commodities comprising automotive parts, machinery, building materials, paper, food, consumer goods, furniture, steel, and other metals. It also provides value-added services for individual customer requirements, including material handling, consolidation, sequencing, sub-assembly, cross-dock, kitting, repacking, warehousing, and returnable container management; and intermodal support services comprising short-to-medium distance delivery of steamship and rail truck containers between the port or railhead, and the customer and drayage services. The company serves automotive, steel, oil and gas, alternative energy, and manufacturing industries, as well as other transportation companies who aggregate loads from various shippers. The company was formerly known as Universal Truckload Services, Inc. and changed its name to Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. in April 2016. Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Warren, Michigan.

CEO
Timothy Phillips
Employees
10,821
Beta
0.92
Industry
Trucking
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-46.7%
High: $30.76
From 52W Low
+28.2%
Low: $12.78
Moving Averages
10-Day
$16.00
Above
20-Day
$16.80
Below
50-Day
$16.60
Below
200-Day
$20.90
Below
60-Day Support
$14.28
60-Day Resistance
$19.43
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-21.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-12.1%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.88x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$397M$394M$382M$465M
Gross Profit$33M$46M$40M$63M
Operating Income$-74M$20M$16M$38M
Net Income$-75M$8M$6M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$-2.84$0.32$0.23$0.77
Gross Margin8.4%11.7%10.5%13.5%
Operating Margin-18.7%5.1%4.1%8.2%
Net Margin-18.8%2.1%1.6%4.3%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 11.1%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -54.9pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
56K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$837K/day
Float
0
7M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$441M
Range
0
141% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low dollar volumelow volumelow floatsmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
25.4%
Outstanding Shares
26M
Bid-Ask Spread
141.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.