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23

FWRD

🏭 Industrials

Forward Air Corporation

Conservative #1255Aggressive #1001Moderate RiskHigh 92
$25.07-0.31%
Day High$25.40
Day Low$24.77
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$783M
52W Low $1052W High $32
Market Cap
$777M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
80.5%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-588.2%
Profit Margin
-4.6%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
15.43

Why This Score

FWRD scores 23.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (19%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (92/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (20.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 15.43) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. FWRD's rank of #1255 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score23.4
Fundamental Score20.3
ML Score26.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
44.8
6 Month
50.0
Primary
1 Year
52.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 15.4x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
66
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
67
Grade B
Base
19.5
SHAP
+0.6
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.6
Final
23.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)34.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)42.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.1% to -0.9%
Medium-term
-11.8% to -1.2%
Long-term
-15.5% to -1.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 26

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.8/100
Target Upside+49.3%
Coverage21 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+30.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.56)
Relative Strength vs Sector+8.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.120
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P97
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P35
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+1.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 54th percentileP54
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.6pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (49.8) + 9% ML (52.3) + SHAP(+0.6) = 50.7
Factor quality: +0.7pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.8%. Max drawdown 38% (-12.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.6pt (conviction=92)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (132.7%) — earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 15.4x — balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #121 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FWRD23.4N/A80.5%-4.6%$777M
FER83.912.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.220.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD70.847.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO70.831.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
RYAAY69.113.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
FELE68.435.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$9.7B
AEIS67.681.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.249.919.0%-48.2%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States and Canada. It operates in two segments, Expedited Freight and Intermodal. The Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include final mile, truckload, shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. This segment also offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services. The Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract, and container freight station warehouse and handling services. It serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. Forward Air Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.

CEO
Shawn Stewart
Employees
6,319
Beta
1.32
Industry
Integrated Freight & Logistics
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-22.4%
High: $32.47
From 52W Low
+157.4%
Low: $9.79
Moving Averages
10-Day
$26.60
Below
20-Day
$27.90
Below
50-Day
$27.10
Below
200-Day
$25.00
Above
60-Day Support
$22.5
60-Day Resistance
$31.18
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 71/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.64%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.31x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
61
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$631M$632M$619M$613M
Gross Profit$305M$15M$115M$75M
Operating Income$-3M$15M$20M$5M
Net Income$-28M$-16M$-13M$-51M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.91$-0.52$-0.41$-1.68
Gross Margin48.4%2.4%18.6%12.3%
Operating Margin-0.5%2.4%3.2%0.8%
Net Margin-4.5%-2.6%-2.0%-8.3%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 80.5%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B — 67/100Score impact: -14.3pt

Volume
81
517K avg/day
Dollar Vol
66
$13M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$777M
Range
100
232% spread
Composite Liquidity Score67/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
72.2%
Outstanding Shares
31M
Bid-Ask Spread
232.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.