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40

PENG

💻 Technology

Penguin Solutions, Inc.

Conservative #837Aggressive #731Moderate RiskModerate 71
$20.68+2.22%
Day High$21.08
Day Low$20.33
Volume1.7M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $1452W High $30
Market Cap
$1.0B
P/E Ratio
40.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
16.9%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
141.1%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.88

Why This Score

PENG scores 40.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (71/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 40.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (-0.1 points) applied. PENG's rank of #837 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.7
Fundamental Score40.0
ML Score24.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.5
6 Month
74.4
Primary
1 Year
78.3

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-375.4%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
72
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
83
Grade A
Base
36.9
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-0.1
Final
40.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.4% to +6.0%
Medium-term
+2.8% to +9.7%
Long-term
+4.1% to +13.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 24

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score71.9/100
Target Upside+45.2%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score63.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+16.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.14)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.3)
Momentum Quality-0.021
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
9%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P67
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P32
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P89
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (63.5) + 9% ML (78.0) + SHAP(+3.0) = 67.8
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 9.5%. Max drawdown 27% (-7.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-8.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -16 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (141%) far exceeds revenue growth (16.9%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High accrual ratio (-375.4%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #184 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PENG40.740.116.9%1.8%$1.0B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 1
Price Target
$28consensus
Low $25Median $28High $31
+35.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Penguin Solutions, Inc. engages in the designing and development of enterprise solutions worldwide. It operates through three segments: Advanced Computing, Integrated Memory, and Optimized LED. It offers dynamic random access memory modules, solid-state and flash storage, and other advanced integrated memory solutions for networking and telecom, data analytics, artificial intelligence and machine learning applications; and supply chain services, including procurement, logistics, inventory management, temporary warehousing, programming, kitting, and packaging services. The company also provides Penguin Computing that focus on technical computing for core and cloud environments through high-performance computing and AI solutions; and Penguin Edge, an edge computing solution for embedded and wireless applications, such as high-performance products for government, health care, manufacturing, and telecommunications applications. In addition, it offers Stratus, which provides simplified, protected, and autonomous fault tolerant computing solutions in the data center and at the Edge through hardware and software services; and solutions to education, energy, financial services, government, hyperscale, and manufacturing markets. Further, the company provides LED chip products comprising blue and green LED chips based on gallium nitride, and related materials under Cree LED brand; and surface mount devices under the Cree LED XLamp and J Series brands. It sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers, enterprise, government and other end customers through direct sales force, e-commerce, customer service representatives, on-site field application engineers, independent sales representatives, distributors, integrators, and resellers. The company was formerly known as SMART Global Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Penguin Solutions, Inc. in October 2024. Penguin Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.

CEO
Kash Shaikh
Employees
2,700
Beta
2.20
Industry
Hardware, Equipment & Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
71.9
Overbought
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-30.6%
High: $29.8
From 52W Low
+45.6%
Low: $14.2
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.40
Above
20-Day
$19.10
Above
50-Day
$19.70
Above
200-Day
$21.70
Below
60-Day Support
$17.13
60-Day Resistance
$23.99
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-4.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.59%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
34
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$343M$338M$324M$366M
Gross Profit$96M$97M$95M$105M
Operating Income$24M$12M$10M$18M
Net Income$5M$9M$3M$8M
EPS (Diluted)$0.04$0.10$-0.01$0.09
Gross Margin27.9%28.6%29.3%28.7%
Operating Margin6.9%3.7%3.0%5.1%
Net Margin1.5%2.8%0.8%2.2%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 16.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 40.1)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 83/100Score impact: -7.3pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
82
$23M/day
Float
80
51M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$1.0B
Range
100
110% spread
Composite Liquidity Score83/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.8%
Outstanding Shares
53M
Bid-Ask Spread
110.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.