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52

DORM

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Dorman Products, Inc.

Conservative #493Aggressive #538Moderate RiskModerate 63F↑ 19pt
$114.50-9.41%
Day High$125.52
Day Low$114.25
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$3.5B
52W Low $10752W High $167
Market Cap
$4.0B
P/E Ratio
16.0
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
4.1%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
47.0%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.37

Why This Score

DORM scores 52.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 17.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (12.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. DORM's rank of #493 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.7
Fundamental Score50.9
ML Score54.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
50.6
6 Month
56.6
Primary
1 Year
59.6

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
59
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
64
Grade Blow volume
Base
50.8
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-1.2
Final
52.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)68.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.9% to +0.3%
Medium-term
-5.7% to +0.7%
Long-term
-7.5% to +1.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 54

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.7/100
Target Upside+41.8%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+18.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.01)
Relative Strength vs Sector-1.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality-0.002
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P52
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P59
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P21
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 78 relative to sector peers78/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 60th percentileP60
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (78.0) + 9% ML (59.5) + SHAP(+2.4) = 78.7—
Factor quality: +0.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.2%. Max drawdown 24% (-6.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.0B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (fund 19pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (42.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #43 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DORM52.716.04.1%11.6%$4.0B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy14 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 6Hold: 5Sell: 2
Price Target
$180consensus
Low $180Median $180High $180
+57.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Dorman Products, Inc. supplies replacement parts and fasteners for passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the automotive aftermarket industry worldwide. It offers original equipment dealer products, such as intake and exhaust manifolds, window regulators, radiator fan assemblies, tire pressure monitor sensors, exhaust gas recirculation coolers, and complex electronics modules; fluid reservoirs, variable valve timing components, complex electronics, and integrated door lock actuators; and oil drain plugs, and wheel bolts and lug nuts. The company also provides automotive replacement parts, including door handles, keyless remotes and cases, and door hinge repairs; and heavy duty aftermarket parts for class 4-8 vehicles, such as lighting, cooling, engine management, wheel hardware, air tanks, and cab products. It offers powertrain products comprising cooling products, harmonic balancers, fluid lines and reservoirs, connectors, 4-wheel drive components, other engine, and transmission and axle components; and chassis products, such as control arms, ball joints, tie-rod ends, brake hardware and hydraulics, axle hardware, suspension arms, knuckles, links, bushings, leaf springs, other suspension, steering, and brake components. The company also provides automotive body products, including window lift motors, switches and handles, wiper, and other interior and exterior automotive body components; and hardware products comprising threaded bolts; automotive and home electrical wiring components; and other hardware assortments and merchandise. It offers its products under the OE Solutions, HELP!, OE FIX, Conduct-Tite, and HD Solutions brands through automotive aftermarket retailers, such as on-line platforms; national, regional, and local warehouse distributors; and specialty markets; salvage yards; local independent parts wholesalers; and mass merchants. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Colmar, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Kevin Olsen
Employees
3,787
Beta
0.91
Industry
Auto - Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
25.7
Oversold
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-31.4%
High: $166.89
From 52W Low
+7.1%
Low: $106.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$128.00
Below
20-Day
$127.50
Below
50-Day
$126.60
Below
200-Day
$134.70
Below
60-Day Support
$114.26
60-Day Resistance
$137
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 34/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
-15%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.23%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.05x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
60
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$538M$544M$541M$508M
Gross Profit$229M$241M$220M$208M
Operating Income$31M$106M$82M$80M
Net Income$12M$76M$59M$58M
EPS (Diluted)$0.38$2.48$1.91$1.87
Gross Margin42.6%44.4%40.6%40.9%
Operating Margin5.8%19.4%15.2%15.8%
Net Margin2.1%14.1%10.9%11.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 16.0Profit margin 11.6%Valuation below sector median (P/E 16.0)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 64/100Score impact: -5.7pt

Volume
43
179K avg/day
Dollar Vol
82
$23M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
65
$4.0B
Range
88
56% spread
Composite Liquidity Score64/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$90.08$122.9630.9%Moderate
2022$73.32$119.0447.5%Wide
2023$60.01$102.2552.1%Wide
2024$79.20$146.6059.7%Wide
2025$106.95$166.8943.8%Wide
3-Year Range
94.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
56.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.