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63

REYN

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.

Conservative #248Aggressive #547Low RiskHigh 100
$24.64-1.36%
Day High$24.93
Day Low$24.29
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$5.2B
52W Low $2152W High $26
Market Cap
$5.0B
P/E Ratio
16.6
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
0.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-14.5%
Profit Margin
8.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.75

Why This Score

REYN scores 62.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (3.9% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score62.7
Fundamental Score60.5
ML Score77.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.4
6 Month
86.5
Primary
1 Year
91.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.039 vol with only 0.7% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
43
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade Brange bound
Base
58.9
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-0.2
Final
62.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value85
Quality70
Growth45
Stability60
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)76.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)75.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.7% to +5.9%
Medium-term
-0.6% to +9.4%
Long-term
-0.5% to +12.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 77

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+1.7%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality+0.016
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
32%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P32
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P57
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P83
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 80 relative to sector peers80/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 76th percentileP76
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (80.3) + 9% ML (76.0) + SHAP(+4.4) = 84.3
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 3.9%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 9% (-0.5 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.0B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -20 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: False stability: 0.0 vol with only 0.7% revenue growth — stagnation, not safetyFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #16 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
REYN62.716.60.7%8.1%$5.0B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold12 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 9
Price Target
$25consensus
Low $24Median $25High $26
+1.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. produces and sells products in cooking, waste and storage, and tableware product categories in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Reynolds Cooking & Baking, Hefty Waste & Storage, Hefty Tableware, and Presto Products. The Reynolds Cooking & Baking segment produces foil, disposable aluminum pans, parchment paper, freezer paper, wax paper, butcher paper, plastic wrap, baking cups, oven bags, and slow cooker liners under the Reynolds Wrap, Reynolds KITCHENS, and E-Z Foil brands in the United States, as well as under the ALCAN brand in Canada and under the Diamond brand internationally. The Hefty Waste & Storage segment offers trash bags under the Hefty Ultra Strong and Hefty Strong brands; and food storage bags under the Hefty and Baggies brands. This segment also provides a suite of products, including blue and clear recycling bags, compostable bags, bags made from recycled materials, and the Hefty EnergyBag Program. The Hefty Tableware segment offers disposable and compostable plates, bowls, platters, cups, and cutlery under the Hefty brand. The Presto Products segment primarily sells store brand products in food storage bags, trash bags, reusable storage containers, and plastic wrap categories. Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. offers both branded and store brand products to grocery stores, mass merchants, warehouse clubs, discount chains, dollar stores, drug stores, home improvement stores, military outlets, and eCommerce retailers. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois. Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Packaging Finance Limited.

CEO
Scott E. Huckins
Employees
6,400
Beta
0.57
Industry
Packaging & Containers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
59.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.1%
High: $26.25
From 52W Low
+17.8%
Low: $20.91
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.10
Above
20-Day
$23.50
Above
50-Day
$23.60
Above
200-Day
$23.20
Above
60-Day Support
$21.74
60-Day Resistance
$25.36
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 32/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+6.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.04%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.97x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
10
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.0B$931M$938M$818M
Gross Profit$266M$233M$226M$189M
Operating Income$175M$123M$118M$76M
Net Income$118M$79M$73M$31M
EPS (Diluted)$0.56$0.38$0.35$0.15
Gross Margin25.7%25.0%24.1%23.1%
Operating Margin16.9%13.2%12.6%9.3%
Net Margin11.4%8.5%7.8%3.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 16.6Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 16.6)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 79/100Score impact: -11.9pt

Volume
98
952K avg/day
Dollar Vol
82
$23M/day
Float
82
54M shares
Mkt Cap
68
$5.0B
Range
22
26% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA
range bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 59/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 5 of the last 5 years (3-year range: 43.8%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -2.9pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$26.50$32.0619%Narrow
2022$24.54$32.5027.9%Moderate
2023$24.80$30.6521.1%Narrow
2024$26.50$32.6520.8%Narrow
2025$20.91$28.2229.8%Moderate
3-Year Range
43.8%
Narrow Years
5 / 5
Sideways Penalty
-2.9pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
stagnation flagrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
25.6%
Outstanding Shares
210M
Bid-Ask Spread
26.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.