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GDYN

💻 Technology

Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #675Aggressive #293Moderate RiskModerate 75
$6.46+0.16%
Day High$6.53
Day Low$6.16
Volume1.3M
Mkt Cap$548M
52W Low $652W High $22
Market Cap
$578M
P/E Ratio
41.5
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
12.0%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
329.0%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

GDYN scores 45.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (75/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 41.5x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (10.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.9
Fundamental Score40.3
ML Score67.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.8
6 Month
70.2
Primary
1 Year
73.9

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
38
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
76
Grade B
Base
43.7
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-1.8
Final
45.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)32.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)66.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.7% to +6.4%
Medium-term
+3.3% to +10.4%
Long-term
+4.8% to +14.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 67

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score37.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.7%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-44.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.32)
Relative Strength vs Sector-68.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.273
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P54
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P31
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P51
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 71 relative to sector peers71/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 73th percentileP73
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (70.7) + 9% ML (73.2) + SHAP(+3.0) = 73.9
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 10.6%. Max drawdown 58% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -65% (-10.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (329%) massively exceeds revenue growth (12.0%) — earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 27x — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-48.3%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #155 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GDYN45.941.512.0%3.4%$578M
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 8
Price Target
$17consensus
Low $13Median $17High $20
+155.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise-level digital transformation services in the areas of search, analytics, and release automation for Fortune 1000 corporations in North America, Europe, and internationally. It works in collaboration with its clients on digital transformation initiatives that cover strategy consulting, early prototypes, and enterprise-scale delivery of new digital platforms. The company offers technical consulting, software design, development, testing, and internet service operations services. It serves customers that operate in the retail, technology and telecommunications, media, consumer packaged goods/manufacturing, financial services, and other sectors. The company was formerly known as ChaSerg Technology Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.

CEO
Leonard Livschitz
Employees
4,926
Beta
0.80
Industry
Information Technology Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-68.9%
High: $20.76
From 52W Low
+5.7%
Low: $6.11
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.60
Below
20-Day
$7.10
Below
50-Day
$8.40
Below
200-Day
$9.30
Below
60-Day Support
$6.11
60-Day Resistance
$10.21
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-30.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-20.12%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.59x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$104M$101M$100M$100M
Gross Profit$35M$35M$37M$37M
Operating Income$-241,000$-123,000$-2M$5M
Net Income$1M$5M$3M$5M
EPS (Diluted)$0.01$0.06$0.03$0.05
Gross Margin33.3%34.1%36.8%36.9%
Operating Margin-0.2%-0.1%-2.0%5.5%
Net Margin1.1%5.2%2.9%4.5%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 12.0%Valuation below sector median (P/E 41.5)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 76/100Score impact: -17.5pt

Volume
100
1.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
54
$7M/day
Float
92
79M shares
Mkt Cap
30
$578M
Range
100
255% spread
Composite Liquidity Score76/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$13.84$42.81102.3%Wide
2022$9.09$39.67125.5%Wide
2023$8.00$14.2456.1%Wide
2024$9.07$24.1690.8%Wide
2025$7.37$25.50110.3%Wide
3-Year Range
110.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.1%
Outstanding Shares
85M
Bid-Ask Spread
255.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.