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GBLI

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Global Indemnity Group, LLC

Conservative #825Aggressive #1115Low Risk
$28.83+3.37%
Day High$28.90
Day Low$27.97
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$413M
52W Low $2652W High $37
Market Cap
$415M
P/E Ratio
14.7
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
-16.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
70.0%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

GBLI scores 42.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.2% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (84/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -26.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, GBLI would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.6
Fundamental Score60.2
ML Score83.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
52.9
6 Month
59.1
Primary
1 Year
62.2

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.052 vol with only -16.5% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
34
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
39.8
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+0.4
Conviction
+1.3
Divergence
-1.2
Final
42.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value84
Quality30
Growth54
Stability84
Investment37

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)59.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)59.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-6.4% to +0.4%
Medium-term
-9.4% to +0.7%
Long-term
-12.4% to +1.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 83

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score34.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-9.1%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.22)
Relative Strength vs Sector-20.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.3)
Momentum Quality-0.098
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
14%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P7
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P51
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P30
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 83th percentileP83
Blended score: 80% fundamental (60) + 20% ML (83) = 64.864.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 16% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.3pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 23pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: False stability: 0.052 vol with only -16.5% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #233 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GBLI42.614.7-16.5%6.3%$415M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Global Indemnity Group, LLC, through its subsidiaries, provides specialty property and casualty insurance and reinsurance products worldwide. It operates through Commercial Specialty; Farm, Ranch, & Stable; and Reinsurance Operations segments. The Commercial Specialty segment distributes property, general liability, casualty, and professional lines products. This segment sells its products through a network of wholesale general agents and program administrators. The Farm, Ranch, & Stable segment offers commercial farm auto and excess/umbrella coverage for the agriculture industry, as well as specialized insurance products for the equine mortality and equine major medical industry on an admitted basis through wholesalers and retail agents. The Reinsurance Operations segment provides offer third-party treaty reinsurance for casualty insurance and reinsurance companies, as well as professional liability products to companies through brokers. Global Indemnity Group, LLC was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Joseph Warner Brown Jr.
Employees
266
Beta
0.40
Industry
Insurance - Property & Casualty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.6%
High: $37
From 52W Low
+7.8%
Low: $25.88
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.10
Below
20-Day
$28.30
Below
50-Day
$28.40
Below
200-Day
$29.40
Below
60-Day Support
$27.34
60-Day Resistance
$29.48
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-5.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-4.14%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.38x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$114M$111M$109M$108M
Gross Profit$24M$21M$4M$19M
Operating Income$16M$13M$-5M$12M
Net Income$13M$10M$-4M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.86$0.71$-0.30$0.65
Gross Margin20.9%18.7%4.1%17.7%
Operating Margin14.1%11.9%-4.7%11.2%
Net Margin11.0%9.4%-3.7%8.3%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.7Valuation below sector median (P/E 14.7)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -21.4pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
5K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$147K/day
Float
0
10M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$415M
Range
0
43% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 36/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.97$31.9828.6%Moderate
2022$20.52$27.6629.6%Moderate
2023$23.01$37.0046.6%Wide
2024$27.47$37.0029.6%Moderate
2025$25.88$37.0035.4%Wide
3-Year Range
46.6%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein basingsevere revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
67.6%
Outstanding Shares
14M
Bid-Ask Spread
43.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.