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47

GLAD

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Gladstone Capital Corporation

Conservative #644Aggressive #958Moderate RiskModerate 66MLโ†‘ 17pt
$18.56+0.38%
Day High$18.67
Day Low$18.32
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$419M
52W Low $1852W High $30
Market Cap
$419M
P/E Ratio
11.3
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
20.4%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-38.7%
Profit Margin
63.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.38

Why This Score

GLAD scores 47.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 63.0%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.3x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, GLAD would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.2
Fundamental Score58.0
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
60.6
6 Month
67.7
Primary
1 Year
71.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
33
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
46
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
37
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
44.0
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.8
Final
47.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)44.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)70.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.3% to +1.8%
Medium-term
-2.9% to +3.1%
Long-term
-3.7% to +4.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score46.4/100
Target Upside+18.4%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score33.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.87)
Relative Strength vs Sector-39.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.0)
Momentum Quality-0.214
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P79
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P73
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P7
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 70th percentileP70
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (53.6) + 9% ML (70.5) + SHAP(+2.4) = 57.5โ€”
Factor quality: +0.8pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 7.5%. Max drawdown 29% (-8.5 pts). Price momentum -30% (-5.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.4B market cap)-20.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (ML 17pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (163.2%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #187 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GLAD47.211.320.4%63.0%$419M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
CINF82.410.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
ACT81.98.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
SEIC81.014.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.510.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
FHB78.111.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
MCHB77.4N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
TRMK75.711.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.49.926.2%27.1%$605M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$26.2B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.7B
FFIN73.118.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
VLY72.512.5-2.2%17.1%$7.4B
QQQX72.010.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.726.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold14 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 8Sell: 4
Price Target
$22consensus
Low $21Median $22High $22
+16.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Gladstone Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in lower middle market, growth capital, add on acquisitions, change of control, buy & build strategies, debt refinancing, debt investments in senior term loans, revolving loans, secured first and second lien term loans, senior subordinated loans, unitranche loans, junior subordinated loans, and mezzanine loans and equity investments in the form of common stock, preferred stock, limited liability company interests, or warrants. It operates as a business development company. The fund also makes private equity investments in acquisitions, buyouts and recapitalizations, and refinancing existing debts. It targets small and medium-sized companies in United States. It is industry agnostic and seeks to invest in companies engaged in the business services, light and specialty manufacturing, niche industrial products and services, specialty consumer products and services, energy services, transportation and logistics, healthcare and education services, specialty chemicals, media and communications and aerospace and defense. The fund seeks to invest between $7 million and $30 million in companies that have between $20 million and $150 million in sales and EBITDA between $3 million and $25 million. It prefers to acquire minority stakes. It seeks to exit its investments through strategic acquisitions by other industry participants or financial buyers, initial public offerings of common stock, or other capital market transactions.

CEO
David John Gladstone
Employees
73
Beta
0.93
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-36.8%
High: $29.5
From 52W Low
+4.1%
Low: $17.91
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.40
Above
20-Day
$19.10
Below
50-Day
$20.10
Below
200-Day
$23.20
Below
60-Day Support
$17.91
60-Day Resistance
$21.73
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.51%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.03x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$13M$20M$12M$13M
Gross Profit$7M$15M$8M$8M
Operating Income$6M$14M$8M$9M
Net Income$6M$14M$8M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.19$0.59$0.33$0.39
Gross Margin52.8%71.7%63.3%62.7%
Operating Margin47.1%69.9%63.5%66.8%
Net Margin47.1%69.9%63.5%66.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.3Revenue growth 20.4%Profit margin 63.0%

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 37/100Score impact: -4.9pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
44
183K avg/day
Dollar Vol
29
$3M/day
Float
20
0K shares
Mkt Cap
21
$419M
Range
92
63% spread
Composite Liquidity Score37/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumesmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
63.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.