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FUTU

🏦 Financial Services

Futu Holdings Limited

Conservative #401Aggressive #222Moderate RiskModerate 79
$151.72+5.38%
Day High$151.81
Day Low$148.50
Volume2.1M
Mkt Cap$21.1B
52W Low $7152W High $203
Market Cap
$20.4B
P/E Ratio
16.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
35.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
27.1%
Profit Margin
40.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.31

Why This Score

FUTU scores 56.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 40.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (34%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (79/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (13.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -13.7 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, FUTU would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.1
Fundamental Score61.0
ML Score87.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.4
6 Month
62.0
Primary
1 Year
65.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
77
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
54.3
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-1.6
Final
56.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

75AVG
Value85
Quality95
Growth90
Stability75
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)84.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.6% to +2.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 87

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.6/100
Target Upside+51.6%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score76.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+55.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector+25.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.6)
Momentum Quality+0.253
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P89
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P35
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P100
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 76 relative to sector peers76/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (75.6) + 9% ML (65.0) + SHAP(+2.4) = 77.1
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 13.4%. Max drawdown 26% (-7.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($20.4B market cap)+2.0 pts
Risk Factors
Country risk: China -14.0pt [structural: -8pt, macro: -6.0pt] (VIE structure risk, HFCAA delisting risk, regulatory seizure precedent)Country

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #119 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FUTU56.116.535.8%40.1%$20.4B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 3Sell: 1
Price Target
$225consensus
Low $213Median $225High $236
+48.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Futu Holdings Limited provides digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms. The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, which serves as an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask questions, and exchange ideas. Futu Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.

CEO
Hua Li
Employees
3,343
Beta
0.36
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-25.1%
High: $202.53
From 52W Low
+114.9%
Low: $70.6
Moving Averages
10-Day
$150.20
Above
20-Day
$154.40
Below
50-Day
$163.70
Below
200-Day
$157.90
Below
60-Day Support
$138.68
60-Day Resistance
$189.38
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 33/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-3.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.56%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.11x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
10
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$6.4B$5.3B$4.7B$4.4B
Gross Profit$5.6B$4.6B$3.9B$3.7B
Operating Income$3.9B$3.3B$2.7B$2.2B
Net Income$3.2B$2.6B$2.1B$1.9B
EPS (Diluted)$22.80$18.32$15.28$13.36
Gross Margin87.6%87.4%84.0%82.5%
Operating Margin61.0%63.0%57.2%50.0%
Net Margin50.4%48.5%45.7%42.2%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 16.5Revenue growth 35.8%Profit margin 40.1%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 16.5)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -10.6pt

Volume
100
1.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$209M/day
Float
96
91M shares
Mkt Cap
85
$20.4B
Range
100
187% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$34.11$181.44136.7%Wide
2022$21.23$72.20109.1%Wide
2023$35.91$67.4961.1%Wide
2024$43.61$130.5099.8%Wide
2025$70.60$202.5396.6%Wide
3-Year Range
139.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
65.0%
Outstanding Shares
139M
Bid-Ask Spread
187.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.