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APLD

💻 Technology

Applied Digital Corporation

Conservative #1272Aggressive #132Moderate RiskModerate 76
$29.08-5.15%
Day High$31.68
Day Low$28.83
Volume18.4M
Mkt Cap$8.1B
52W Low $352W High $42
Market Cap
$8.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
57.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-54.8%
Profit Margin
-43.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.80

Why This Score

APLD scores 22.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (98/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (341%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (29.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.80) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -18.7 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, APLD would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score22.5
Fundamental Score26.1
ML Score98.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
26.1
6 Month
29.2
Primary
1 Year
30.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
30.5
SHAP
+0.6
Factors
-0.1
Divergence
-8.5
Final
22.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-12.3% to -6.7%
Medium-term
-16.2% to -8.2%
Long-term
-20.2% to -9.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 98

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+3.4%
6M Momentum+1.2%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+220.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.35)
Relative Strength vs Sector+337.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+2.412
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P96
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P2
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+1.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 32 relative to sector peers32/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 39th percentileP39
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.6pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (32.3) + 9% ML (38.1) + SHAP(+0.6) = 33.4
Factor quality: -0.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 29.5%. Max drawdown 29% (-8.5 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (341% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($8.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (30.5%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.8x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #270 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APLD22.5N/A57.7%-43.5%$8.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 12
Price Target
$50consensus
Low $35Median $41High $99
+72.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Applied Digital Corporation designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure solutions and cloud services high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence industries in North America. It operates through three segments: Data Center Hosting Business, Cloud Services Business, and HPC Hosting Business. The company offers infrastructure services to crypto mining customers; and GPU computing solutions for critical workloads related to AI, machine learning, and other HPC tasks. It also engages in the designing, constructing, and managing of data centers to support HPC applications. The company was formerly known as Applied Blockchain, Inc. and changed its name to Applied Digital Corporation in November 2022. Applied Digital Corporation is based in Dallas, Texas.

CEO
Wesley Cummins
Employees
150
Beta
7.18
Industry
Information Technology Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-31.2%
High: $42.27
From 52W Low
+778.5%
Low: $3.31
Moving Averages
10-Day
$32.40
Below
20-Day
$33.90
Below
50-Day
$31.90
Below
200-Day
$21.90
Above
60-Day Support
$21.93
60-Day Resistance
$42.27
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+32.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+52.78%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.63x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$127M$64M$38M$53M
Gross Profit$26M$9M$8M$4M
Operating Income$-31M$-19M$-20M$-19M
Net Income$-18M$-17M$-53M$-36M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.07$-0.07$-0.24$-0.16
Gross Margin20.6%13.4%20.4%7.1%
Operating Margin-24.5%-28.9%-53.5%-35.8%
Net Margin-13.8%-26.4%-138.2%-67.2%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 57.7%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -33.1pt

Volume
100
31.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$948M/day
Float
100
236M shares
Mkt Cap
76
$8.1B
Range
100
1177% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2022$0.85$5.00141.9%Wide
2023$1.61$11.62151.3%Wide
2024$2.36$11.25130.6%Wide
2025$3.31$40.20169.6%Wide
3-Year Range
184.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 4
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
84.4%
Outstanding Shares
280M
Bid-Ask Spread
1177.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.