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FRPT

🛒 Consumer Defensive

Freshpet, Inc.

Conservative #646Aggressive #136Moderate RiskML↑ 19pt
$84.45+3.93%
Day High$84.54
Day Low$81.05
Volume1.2M
Mkt Cap$4.1B
52W Low $4752W High $108
Market Cap
$4.0B
P/E Ratio
29.4
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
27.2%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
239.6%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.42

Why This Score

FRPT scores 48.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (12.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. FRPT's rank of #646 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.9
Fundamental Score42.8
ML Score53.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
63.3
6 Month
70.7
Primary
1 Year
74.4

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
23
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
87
Grade A
Base
44.9
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Final
48.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

62AVG
Value61
Quality40
Growth97
Stability66
Investment47

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)46.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)43.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.6% to +6.2%
Medium-term
+3.1% to +10.1%
Long-term
+4.6% to +14.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 53

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-12.8%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score22.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-58.1%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.58)
Relative Strength vs Sector-46.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (3.0)
Momentum Quality-0.217
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P95
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P24
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P15
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.9σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 53th percentileP53
Blended score: 80% fundamental (43) + 20% ML (53) = 44.844.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 41% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive — Rank #33 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FRPT48.929.427.2%11.4%$4.0B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company sells its products under the Freshpet brand; and Dognation and Dog Joy labels through various classes of retail, including grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, and natural, as well as online. Freshpet, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Secaucus, New Jersey.

CEO
William Cyr
Employees
1,296
Beta
1.71
Industry
Packaged Foods
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
83.4
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.3%
High: $111.62
From 52W Low
+80.6%
Low: $46.76
Moving Averages
10-Day
$76.60
Above
20-Day
$72.90
Above
50-Day
$68.30
Above
200-Day
$64.40
Above
60-Day Support
$56.28
60-Day Resistance
$84.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+31.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-8.59%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.45x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
28
Confidence: 40%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone RSI overbought
$61.22
Stop Entry Now Target
$114.97
Entry Zone
$67.62 – $70.35
SMA50 pullback zone ($67.62–$70.35)
Exit Target
$111.62
52-week high / +22% target ($111.62)
Stop Level
$63.11
Below SMA200 ($63.11)
Risk / Reward:1 : 7.26Favorable

Stage 2 uptrend — institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$285M$289M$265M$263M
Gross Profit$105M$108M$108M$104M
Operating Income$52M$26M$18M$-11M
Net Income$34M$102M$16M$-13M
EPS (Diluted)$0.64$1.86$0.33$-0.26
Gross Margin36.8%37.5%40.9%39.4%
Operating Margin18.3%8.9%6.7%-4.4%
Net Margin11.9%35.2%6.2%-4.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveRevenue growth 27.2%Profit margin 11.4%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 87/100Score impact: -2.2pt

Volume
100
1.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$107M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
65
$4.0B
Range
100
139% spread
Composite Liquidity Score87/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$83.15$186.9876.9%Wide
2022$36.02$118.77106.9%Wide
2023$45.13$88.8565.3%Wide
2024$82.16$160.9164.8%Wide
2025$46.76$164.07111.3%Wide
3-Year Range
113.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
139.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.