Back to Dashboard
51

CHEF

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.

Conservative #605Aggressive #433Low RiskMLโ†‘ 36pt
$71.39-0.97%
Day High$71.92
Day Low$70.86
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$2.9B
52W Low $4552W High $74
Market Cap
$2.9B
P/E Ratio
37.5
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
9.4%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
30.4%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
1.95

Why This Score

CHEF scores 50.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.95) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. CHEF's rank of #605 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.8
Fundamental Score48.3
ML Score51.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.2
6 Month
78.5
Primary
1 Year
82.6

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
53
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
46.8
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Final
50.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

61AVG
Value48
Quality36
Growth72
Stability68
Investment82

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)46.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.0% to +6.7%
Medium-term
+4.0% to +11.1%
Long-term
+5.9% to +15.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 51

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.3/100
Target Upside+9.7%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.90)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.3)
Momentum Quality+0.080
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P71
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P13
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P25
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 48 relative to sector peers48/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 51th percentileP51
Blended score: 80% fundamental (48) + 20% ML (51) = 48.848.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 15% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #30 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CHEF50.837.59.4%1.7%$2.9B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in distribution of specialty food products in the United States and Canada. The company's product portfolio includes approximately 50,000 stock-keeping units, such as specialty food products, such as artisan charcuterie, specialty cheeses, unique oils and vinegars, truffles, caviar, chocolate, and pastry products. It also offers a line of center-of-the-plate products, including custom cut beef, seafood, and hormone-free poultry, as well as food products, such as cooking oils, butter, eggs, milk, and flour. The company serves menu-driven independent restaurants, fine dining establishments, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools, bakeries, patisseries, chocolatiers, cruise lines, casinos, and specialty food stores. It markets its center-of-the-plate products directly to consumers through a mail and e-commerce platform. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Ridgefield, Connecticut.

CEO
Christopher Pappas
Employees
5,029
Beta
1.28
Industry
Food Distribution
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
69.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.4%
High: $73.94
From 52W Low
+58.6%
Low: $45
Moving Averages
10-Day
$70.50
Above
20-Day
$67.70
Above
50-Day
$64.80
Above
200-Day
$62.80
Above
60-Day Support
$57.39
60-Day Resistance
$73.94
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 70/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.81%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.9x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
30
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$59.69
Stop Entry Now Target
$82.24
Entry Zone
$64.15 โ€“ $66.74
SMA50 pullback zone ($64.15โ€“$66.74)
Exit Target
$79.84
52-week high / +22% target ($79.84)
Stop Level
$61.54
Below SMA200 ($61.54)
Risk / Reward:1 : 3.69Favorable

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.1B$1.0B$1.0B$951M
Gross Profit$277M$247M$254M$226M
Operating Income$51M$39M$40M$23M
Net Income$22M$19M$21M$10M
EPS (Diluted)$0.50$0.44$0.49$0.25
Gross Margin24.2%24.2%24.6%23.8%
Operating Margin4.5%3.8%3.9%2.4%
Net Margin1.9%1.9%2.1%1.1%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveValuation below sector median (P/E 37.5)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 75/100Score impact: -6.0pt

Volume
72
415K avg/day
Dollar Vol
86
$30M/day
Float
66
36M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.9B
Range
89
59% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA
Free Float
89.3%
Outstanding Shares
41M
Bid-Ask Spread
59.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.