Back to Dashboard
47

CHA

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

Conservative #672Aggressive #156Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 26pt
$10.93-1.97%
Day High$11.40
Day Low$10.88
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$2.0B
52W Low $1052W High $42
Market Cap
$2.1B
P/E Ratio
7.7
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
167.4%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
214.2%
Profit Margin
13.6%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.12

Why This Score

CHA scores 48.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 30.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 7.7x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -14.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CHA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.0
Fundamental Score56.0
ML Score66.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.5
6 Month
64.2
Primary
1 Year
67.6

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade B
Base
44.0
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Final
48.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

83AVG
Value87
Quality71
Growth100
Stability73
Investment82

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)85.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.8% to +3.4%
Medium-term
-0.6% to +5.8%
Long-term
-0.5% to +8.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 66

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+60.8%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-9.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P100
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P96
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P82
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+3.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 66th percentileP66
Blended score: 80% fundamental (56) + 20% ML (66) = 58.058.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%Low
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +3.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Country risk: China (12pt penalty, source: data_provider)Country
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #37 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CHA48.07.7167.4%13.6%$2.1B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand name in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company engages in sale of tea drinks and related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment and other supplies. It operates through online platforms. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

CEO
Junjie Zhang
Employees
4,800
Beta
-0.30
Industry
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
49.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-73.9%
High: $41.8
From 52W Low
+9.8%
Low: $9.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.70
Above
20-Day
$10.80
Above
50-Day
$11.70
Below
200-Day
$18.80
Below
60-Day Support
$9.95
60-Day Resistance
$16.56

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
Insufficient technical data
Exit Target
โ€”
โ€”
Stop Level
โ€”
โ€”

Not enough price history to compute reliable entry and exit zones for this stock.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$3.2B$3.3B$3.4B$3.3B
Gross Profit$1.5B$1.6B$1.6B$1.6B
Operating Income$454M$108M$821M$642M
Net Income$394M$70M$679M$659M
EPS (Diluted)$2.03$0.34$3.54$3.59
Gross Margin45.4%48.3%48.5%46.7%
Operating Margin14.2%3.2%24.2%19.3%
Net Margin12.3%2.1%20.0%19.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 7.7Revenue growth 167.4%Profit margin 13.6%Valuation below sector median (P/E 7.7)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 72/100Score impact: -27.3pt

Volume
95
884K avg/day
Dollar Vol
58
$9M/day
Float
52
22M shares
Mkt Cap
58
$2.1B
Range
100
320% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
11.6%
Outstanding Shares
186M
Bid-Ask Spread
320.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.