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COST

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Conservative #220Aggressive #219Low RiskFโ†‘ 43pt
$1010.79+2.44%
Day High$1014.19
Day Low$989.58
Volume3.3M
Mkt Cap$448.7B
52W Low $84452W High $1067
Market Cap
$441.9B
P/E Ratio
54.6
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
8.2%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
9.9%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.28

Why This Score

COST scores 66.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 27.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Low volatility (5.6% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Large-cap ($442B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (93/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 54.6x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. COST's rank of #220 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score66.2
Fundamental Score58.2
ML Score93.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
3.8
6 Month
4.2
Primary
1 Year
4.5

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
65.2
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.5
Divergence
-3.0
Final
66.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

60AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth60
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)62.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.3% to +7.0%
Medium-term
+2.5% to +11.4%
Long-term
+3.7% to +15.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 93

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+6.3%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-10.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.26)
Relative Strength vs Sector-11.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality-0.019
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P65
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P5
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P33
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 93th percentileP93
Blended score: 80% fundamental (58) + 20% ML (93) = 65.265.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (ML 35pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #8 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
PPC60.89.53.5%5.9%$9.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. It offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. The company offers sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, liquor, and tobacco and deli products; appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio products, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal products, office supplies, automotive care products, postages, tickets, apparel, small appliances, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. It also operates pharmacies, opticals, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers, as well as 636 gas stations; and offers business delivery, travel, same-day grocery, and various other services online in various countries. As of August 29, 2021, the company operated 815 membership warehouses, including 564 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 105 in Canada, 39 in Mexico, 30 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 16 in South Korea, 14 in Taiwan, 12 in Australia, 3 in Spain, 1 in Iceland, 1 in France, and 1 in China. It also operates e-commerce websites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.

CEO
Ron Vachris
Employees
333,000
Beta
1.01
Industry
Discount Stores
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.3%
High: $1067.08
From 52W Low
+19.8%
Low: $844.06
Moving Averages
10-Day
$997.60
Above
20-Day
$988.90
Above
50-Day
$942.50
Above
200-Day
$951.40
Above
60-Day Support
$844.06
60-Day Resistance
$1028.44
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 31/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
+6.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.34%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.79x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
19
Confidence: 80%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$895.94
Stop Entry Now Target
$1,041.11
No Entry
โ€”
No new entry โ€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$1,010.79
Reduce at current price ($1010.79)
Stop Level
$923.65
Below SMA50 ($923.65)

Stage 3 distribution โ€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$67.3B$86.2B$63.2B$63.7B
Gross Profit$8.8B$11.1B$8.2B$8.0B
Operating Income$2.5B$3.3B$2.5B$2.3B
Net Income$2.0B$2.6B$1.9B$1.8B
EPS (Diluted)$4.50$5.87$4.28$4.02
Gross Margin13.1%12.9%13.0%12.5%
Operating Margin3.7%3.9%4.0%3.6%
Net Margin3.0%3.0%3.0%2.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveEarnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 93/100Score impact: +7.1pt

Volume
100
2.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$2.6B/day
Float
100
443M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$441.9B
Range
26
26% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 11/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$307.00$571.4960.2%Wide
2022$406.51$612.2740.4%Wide
2023$447.90$681.9141.4%Wide
2024$640.51$1008.2544.6%Wide
2025$844.06$1078.2324.4%Narrow
3-Year Range
82.6%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.7%
Outstanding Shares
444M
Bid-Ask Spread
26.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.