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DLTR

πŸ›’ Consumer Defensive

Dollar Tree, Inc.

Conservative #330Aggressive #387Low RiskML↑ 25pt
$126.48-0.37%
Day High$126.55
Day Low$123.22
Volume2.4M
Mkt Cap$25.8B
52W Low $6252W High $142
Market Cap
$25.7B
P/E Ratio
23.9
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
4.8%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-17.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
1.97

Why This Score

DLTR scores 61.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 26.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.97) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. DLTR's rank of #330 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.0
Fundamental Score53.8
ML Score82.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.3
6 Month
85.3
Primary
1 Year
89.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality β€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
59.4
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.8
Divergence
-2.0
Final
61.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

59AVG
Value70
Quality55
Growth45
Stability45
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)46.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)83.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)56.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.8% to +13.3%
Medium-term
+12.4% to +20.9%
Long-term
+19.0% to +30.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 82

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.7/100
Target Upside-1.9%
Coverage47 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 β€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+57.5%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.21)
Relative Strength vs Sector+63.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.607
Momentum BreadthBroad βœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
19%
Moderate β€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P45
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P85
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
Blended score: 80% fundamental (54) + 20% ML (82) = 59.459.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% β†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -2.0pt (ML 28pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive β€” Rank #15 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
PPC60.89.53.5%5.9%$9.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%β€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home dΓ©cor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

CEO
Michael C. Creedon Jr.
Employees
64,434
Beta
0.74
Industry
Discount Stores
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-11.2%
High: $142.4
From 52W Low
+104.7%
Low: $61.8
Moving Averages
10-Day
$129.80
Below
20-Day
$125.80
Above
50-Day
$127.60
Below
200-Day
$109.00
Above
60-Day Support
$107.44
60-Day Resistance
$142.4
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 β€” AdvancingScore: 81/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+16%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+16.9%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
95
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

In Entry Zone
$103.62
Stop Entry Now Target
$161.95
Entry Zone
$126.32 – $131.43
SMA50 pullback zone ($126.32–$131.43)
Exit Target
$157.23
52-week high / +22% target ($157.23)
Stop Level
$106.82
Below SMA200 ($106.82)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.29Tight

Stage 2 uptrend β€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only β€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$4.8B$4.6B$4.6B$5.0B
Gross Profit$1.7B$1.6B$1.7B$1.9B
Operating Income$320M$223M$384M$534M
Net Income$245M$188M$343M$-3.7B
EPS (Diluted)$1.20$0.91$1.61$-17.17
Gross Margin35.9%34.4%35.6%37.7%
Operating Margin6.7%4.9%8.3%10.7%
Net Margin5.1%4.1%7.4%-73.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 23.9Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 23.9)

Tradability FilterGrade A β€” 98/100Score impact: -5.2pt

Volume
100
3.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$429M/day
Float
100
186M shares
Mkt Cap
88
$25.7B
Range
100
130% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$84.26$149.3755.7%Wide
2022$123.62$177.1935.6%Wide
2023$102.77$161.1044.2%Wide
2024$60.49$151.2285.7%Wide
2025$61.80$132.4872.8%Wide
3-Year Range
90.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
91.3%
Outstanding Shares
204M
Bid-Ask Spread
130.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.