Back to Dashboard
47

JJSF

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

J&J Snack Foods Corp.

Conservative #670Aggressive #1031Moderate Risk
$87.06+2.29%
Day High$87.75
Day Low$85.16
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.7B
52W Low $8052W High $144
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
26.7
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
0.5%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-24.2%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.18

Why This Score

JJSF scores 48.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (88/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. JJSF's rank of #670 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.1
Fundamental Score45.4
ML Score49.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
52.8
6 Month
59.0
Primary
1 Year
62.1

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
34
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
64
Grade B
Base
44.1
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.4
Final
48.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value69
Quality34
Growth22
Stability73
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)43.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)62.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.1% to +1.1%
Medium-term
-4.2% to +2.0%
Long-term
-5.3% to +2.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 49

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.9/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score33.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-11.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.66)
Relative Strength vs Sector-41.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.8)
Momentum Quality-0.213
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P22
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P29
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P42
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 49th percentileP49
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (49) = 46.146.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 34% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.4pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #36 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
JJSF48.126.70.5%3.9%$1.6B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

J&J Snack Foods Corp. manufactures, markets, and distributes nutritional snack foods and beverages to the food service and retail supermarket industries in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates in three segments: Food Service, Retail Supermarkets, and Frozen Beverages. The company offers soft pretzels under the SUPERPRETZEL, PRETZEL FILLERS, PRETZELFILS, GOURMET TWISTS, MR. TWISTER, SOFT PRETZEL BITES, SOFTSTIX, SOFT PRETZEL BUNS, TEXAS TWIST, BAVARIAN BAKERY, SUPERPRETZEL BAVARIAN, NEW YORK PRETZEL, KIM & SCOTT'S GOURMET PRETZELS, SERIOUSLY TWISTED!, BRAUHAUS, AUNTIE ANNE'S, and LABRIOLA, as well as under the private labels. It also provides frozen novelty under the LUIGI'S, WHOLE FRUIT, PHILLY SWIRL, SOUR PATCH, ICEE, and MINUTE MAID brands; churros under the TIO PEPE'S and CALIFORNIA CHURROS brands; and handheld products under the SUPREME STUFFERS and SWEET STUFFERS brands. In addition, the company offers bakery products, including biscuits, fig and fruit bars, cookies, breads, rolls, crumbs, muffins, and donuts under the MRS. GOODCOOKIE, READI-BAKE, COUNTRY HOME, MARY B'S, DADDY RAY'S, and HILL & VALLEY brands, as well as under private labels; and frozen beverages under the ICEE, SLUSH PUPPIE, and PARROT ICE brands. Further, it provides funnel cakes under the FUNNEL CAKE FACTORY brand, as well as various other food products; and sells machines and machine parts to other food and beverage companies. The company sells its products through a network of food brokers, independent sales distributors, and direct sales force. It serves snack bars and food stand locations in chain, department and mass merchandising stores, malls and shopping centers, fast food and casual dining restaurants, stadiums and sports arenas, leisure and theme parks, convenience stores, movie theatres, warehouse club stores, schools, colleges and other institutions, and independent retailers. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Pennsauken, New Jersey.

CEO
Daniel J. Fachner
Employees
5,000
Beta
0.34
Industry
Packaged Foods
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
65.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-39.7%
High: $144.37
From 52W Low
+8.8%
Low: $80
Moving Averages
10-Day
$85.60
Above
20-Day
$85.50
Above
50-Day
$90.10
Below
200-Day
$100.90
Below
60-Day Support
$80
60-Day Resistance
$98.63
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-10.61%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.94x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$344M$410M$454M$356M
Gross Profit$95M$130M$150M$96M
Operating Income$6M$11M$61M$6M
Net Income$883,000$11M$44M$5M
EPS (Diluted)$0.05$0.58$2.26$0.25
Gross Margin27.5%31.7%33.0%26.9%
Operating Margin1.7%2.8%13.3%1.7%
Net Margin0.3%2.8%9.7%1.4%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveValuation below sector median (P/E 26.7)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 64/100Score impact: -2.4pt

Volume
58
277K avg/day
Dollar Vol
82
$24M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
52
$1.6B
Range
100
80% spread
Composite Liquidity Score64/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 13/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$134.68$181.7129.7%Moderate
2022$117.45$165.9034.2%Moderate
2023$133.27$177.7128.6%Moderate
2024$133.23$180.8030.3%Moderate
2025$80.67$158.0764.8%Wide
3-Year Range
76.6%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
80.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.