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63

SFD

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Smithfield Foods, Inc.

Conservative #287Aggressive #252Low Risk
$24.88+0.97%
Day High$25.03
Day Low$24.65
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$9.8B
52W Low $1852W High $26
Market Cap
$9.6B
P/E Ratio
11.3
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
-3.4%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
666.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.40

Why This Score

SFD scores 63.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.0% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (26%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (91/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (78/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-6.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.8
Fundamental Score60.5
ML Score91.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.5
6 Month
90.0
Primary
1 Year
94.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.050 vol with only -3.4% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
64
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
62.1
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-2.3
Final
63.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

77AVG
Value85
Quality55
Growth90
Stability75
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)78.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.2% to +8.3%
Medium-term
+2.3% to +13.0%
Long-term
+4.1% to +18.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 91

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+15.0%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+25.2%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.04)
Relative Strength vs Sector+16.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.225
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
65%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P11
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P87
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P84
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 91th percentileP91
Blended score: 80% fundamental (61) + 20% ML (91) = 66.666.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 14% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (ML 31pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: False stability: 0.050 vol with only -3.4% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag
Value trap penalty: -2.5ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #12 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
PPC60.89.53.5%5.9%$9.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 4
Price Target
$29consensus
Low $29Median $29High $29
+16.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Smithfield Foods, Inc. manufactures and markets packaged meats and fresh pork in the United States and internationally. Its Packaged Meats segment processes fresh meat into various packaged meats products, including bacon, sausage, hot dogs, deli and lunch meats, dry sausage products, ham products, ready-to-eat products, and prepared foods, such as pre-cooked entrees, bacon, and sausage to retail and foodservice customers in the United States. This segment markets its packaged meats products under the Smithfield, Eckrich, Nathan's Famous, Farmland, Armour, Farmer John, Kretschmar, Krakus, John Morrell, Cook's, Gwaltney, Carando, Margherita, Curly's, and Smithfield Culinary brands, as well as under private labels. The company's Fresh Pork segment process live hogs into a variety of primal, sub-primal, and offal products, such as bellies, butts, hams, loins, picnics, and ribs. This segment sells its fresh pork products to retail, foodservice and industrial customers, as well as to export markets, including China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Canada. Its Hog Production segment produces and raises its hogs on various company-owned farms and farms that are owned and operated by third-party contract farmers in the United States and Mexico. The Hog Production segment also sells grains to external customers. The company's bioscience operations use raw materials from hogs that process to manufacture heparin products, including an active pharmaceutical ingredient that mitigates the risk of blood clots. The company was founded in 1936 and is based in Smithfield, Virginia. Smithfield Foods, Inc. is a subsidiary of SFDS UK Holdings Limited.

CEO
C. Shane Smith
Employees
36,500
Beta
0.15
Industry
Agricultural Farm Products
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.6%
High: $26.07
From 52W Low
+35%
Low: $18.43
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.90
Below
20-Day
$24.60
Above
50-Day
$23.50
Above
200-Day
$23.30
Above
60-Day Support
$21.21
60-Day Resistance
$25.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 65/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+6.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.73%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.06x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
24
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$22.15
Stop Entry Now Target
$29.83
Entry Zone
$23.27 โ€“ $24.21
SMA50 pullback zone ($23.27โ€“$24.21)
Exit Target
$28.96
52-week high / +22% target ($28.96)
Stop Level
$22.83
Below SMA200 ($22.83)
Risk / Reward:1 : 5.74Favorable

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q4 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$3.7B$3.8B$-11.3B$3.8B
Gross Profit$479M$499M$-1.5B$510M
Operating Income$310M$260M$-50M$321M
Net Income$248M$188M$-660M$224M
EPS (Diluted)$0.63$0.48$-1.69$0.58
Gross Margin12.8%13.2%N/A13.5%
Operating Margin8.3%6.9%N/A8.5%
Net Margin6.6%5.0%N/A5.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 11.3Earnings quality grade FValuation below sector median (P/E 11.3)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 79/100Score impact: -20.9pt

Volume
93
815K avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$21M/day
Float
55
25M shares
Mkt Cap
80
$9.6B
Range
81
41% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
slight revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
6.3%
Outstanding Shares
393M
Bid-Ask Spread
41.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.