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OLLI

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings

Conservative #306Aggressive #294Low RiskMLโ†‘ 23pt
$107.10-0.72%
Day High$107.14
Day Low$105.11
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$6.6B
52W Low $9752W High $142
Market Cap
$6.7B
P/E Ratio
31.4
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
8.0%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
10.1%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.33

Why This Score

OLLI scores 62.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (92/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-3.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score62.5
Fundamental Score54.5
ML Score92.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.6
6 Month
82.3
Primary
1 Year
86.6

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
86
Grade A
Base
62.0
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.5
Divergence
-3.4
Final
62.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth60
Stability75
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)53.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 92

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside+33.1%
Coverage28 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+20.2%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.95)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality+0.079
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P64
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P20
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P40
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 92th percentileP92
Blended score: 80% fundamental (55) + 20% ML (92) = 62.062.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 20% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.4pt (ML 38pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #13 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
PPC60.89.53.5%5.9%$9.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise. The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn, and garden products. It provides its products primarily under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands Real Cheap!, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, Steelton Tools, American Way, and Middleton Home names. As of August 3, 2022, it operated 450 stores in 29 states throughout half of the United States. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Eric van der Valk
Employees
5,900
Beta
0.53
Industry
Discount Stores
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
31.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.4%
High: $141.74
From 52W Low
+10.4%
Low: $97.04
Moving Averages
10-Day
$109.10
Below
20-Day
$110.10
Below
50-Day
$111.60
Below
200-Day
$122.40
Below
60-Day Support
$104.18
60-Day Resistance
$124
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 36/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-12.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.27%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
56
Confidence: 80%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$98.02
Stop Entry Now Target
$145.99
Entry Zone
$119.95 โ€“ $124.85
Near SMA200 base ($119.95โ€“$124.85)
Exit Target
$141.74
Prior high / breakout target ($141.74)
Stop Level
$101.05
60-day low ($101.05)
Risk / Reward:1 : 0.91Tight

Stage 1 base-building โ€” stock is consolidating above long-term support. Entry near SMA200 offers a defined risk level. Wait for volume confirmation before sizing up.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$614M$680M$577M$667M
Gross Profit$243M$271M$237M$272M
Operating Income$63M$77M$56M$88M
Net Income$46M$61M$48M$69M
EPS (Diluted)$0.75$0.99$0.77$1.11
Gross Margin39.6%39.9%41.1%40.7%
Operating Margin10.2%11.3%9.7%13.2%
Net Margin7.5%9.0%8.2%10.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveEarnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 86/100Score impact: +2.3pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$126M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
71
$6.7B
Range
85
49% spread
Composite Liquidity Score86/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$45.55$98.5873.6%Wide
2022$37.67$72.2762.9%Wide
2023$46.25$83.1957.1%Wide
2024$68.05$120.0355.3%Wide
2025$94.88$141.7439.6%Wide
3-Year Range
101.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
49.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.