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BTDR

💻 Technology

Bitdeer Technologies Group

Conservative #1175Aggressive #90High RiskHigh 81
$8.55+2.03%
Day High$9.10
Day Low$8.42
Volume5.8M
Mkt Cap$1.8B
52W Low $752W High $28
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
11.5
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
77.3%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
110.9%
Profit Margin
10.6%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.37

Why This Score

BTDR scores 27.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (81/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (22.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.37) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -21.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, BTDR would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score27.5
Fundamental Score33.5
ML Score90.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
39.1
6 Month
43.7
Primary
1 Year
46.0

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (2564.7%) — earnings quality concern
Speculative Classification
Crypto/BTC mining company — earnings are macro-trade dependent, not fundamental. Better suited as a tactical position sized around BTC conviction.
Conservative score reduced by 15 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
64
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
29.8
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.2
Conviction
+1.3
Divergence
-6.2
Final
27.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)77.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)31.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.2% to -3.3%
Medium-term
-11.1% to -4.0%
Long-term
-14.1% to -4.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 90

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.7/100
Target Upside+213.9%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score63.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector-21.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality-0.082
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P98
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P71
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P0
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+1.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 48th percentileP48
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (50.1) + 9% ML (48.3) + SHAP(+2.4) = 52.3
Factor quality: +0.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.6B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.3pt (conviction=81)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 22.9%. Max drawdown 55% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -18% (-2.6 pts)High
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (59.9%) exceeds net margin (10.6%) by 49pp — possible write-down; High accrual ratio (2564.7%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 14.9% (original: 16.8%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #258 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BTDR27.511.577.3%10.6%$1.6B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 10Hold: 1
Price Target
$25consensus
Low $6Median $25High $38
+192.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Bitdeer Technologies Group operates as a technology company for the cryptocurrency mining community. It mines cryptocurrencies for its own account and serve the cryptocurrency mining community by providing cryptocurrency mining solution. The company handles various processes involved in mining, such as miner procurement, transport logistics, mining datacenter design and construction, mining machine management, and daily operations. It has mining datacenters deployed in the United States and Norway. The company is headquartered in Singapore.

CEO
Jihan Wu
Employees
183
Beta
2.33
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
30.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-69.2%
High: $27.8
From 52W Low
+25%
Low: $6.84
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.20
Below
20-Day
$11.00
Below
50-Day
$11.70
Below
200-Day
$14.20
Below
60-Day Support
$7.55
60-Day Resistance
$16.24
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 4/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-39.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.83%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.98x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
20
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$225M$170M$156M$70M
Gross Profit$11M$41M$13M$-3M
Operating Income$109M$-20M$-134M$416M
Net Income$71M$-267M$-148M$409M
EPS (Diluted)$0.26$-1.28$-0.76$1.79
Gross Margin4.7%24.1%8.2%-4.6%
Operating Margin48.6%-11.6%-86.3%593.5%
Net Margin31.4%-157.1%-95.0%583.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 11.5Revenue growth 77.3%Profit margin 10.6%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: -25.6pt

Volume
100
7.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$56M/day
Float
100
119M shares
Mkt Cap
53
$1.6B
Range
100
306% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
58.1%
Outstanding Shares
205M
Bid-Ask Spread
306.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.