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FLYW

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

Flywire Corporation

Conservative #667Aggressive #469Moderate Risk
$12.31-4.28%
Day High$12.98
Day Low$12.21
Volume2.2M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $852W High $15
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
22.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
133.9%
Profit Margin
-0.4%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

FLYW scores 48.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (89/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (10.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. FLYW's rank of #667 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.3
Fundamental Score47.6
ML Score41.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
58.1
6 Month
65.0
Primary
1 Year
68.4

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (2310.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade B
Base
44.3
SHAP
+1.5
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.9
Final
48.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

59AVG
Value50
Quality20
Growth92
Stability77
Investment54

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)53.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.9% to +2.1%
Medium-term
-2.5% to +3.6%
Long-term
-3.1% to +5.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 41

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.4/100
Target Upside+61.9%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+12.8%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.23)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality-0.029
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P77
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P45
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 48 relative to sector peers48/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 41th percentileP41
Blended score: 80% fundamental (48) + 20% ML (41) = 46.346.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 23% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.9pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (2310.7%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #151 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FLYW48.3N/A22.1%-0.4%$1.5B
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$54.7B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.0B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.4T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.2B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$310.0B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$562.8B
RMBS77.748.320.7%32.3%$10.7B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.5B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$172.3B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$20.8B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.3B
AAPL74.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
LRCX74.048.323.7%29.1%$296.8B
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.6B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$50.8B
Sector Average48.149.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy19 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 12Hold: 5Sell: 1
Price Target
$17consensus
Low $15Median $18High $19
+40.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Flywire Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a payment enablement and software company in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its payment platform and network, and vertical-specific software help clients to get paid and help their customers to pay. The company's platform facilitates payment flows across multiple currencies, payment types, and payment options; and provides direct connections to alternative payment methods, such as Alipay, Boleto, PayPal/Venmo, and Trustly. It serves education, healthcare, travel, and business to business organizations. Flywire Corporation was formerly known as peerTransfer Corporation and changed its name to Flywire Corporation in December 2016. Flywire Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

CEO
Michael Massaro
Employees
1,250
Beta
1.28
Industry
Information Technology Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
61.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.3%
High: $15.25
From 52W Low
+50.1%
Low: $8.2
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.50
Above
20-Day
$11.50
Above
50-Day
$13.10
Below
200-Day
$12.60
Below
60-Day Support
$10.55
60-Day Resistance
$15.25
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 28/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.15%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.64x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Up

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$158M$200M$132M$133M
Gross Profit$94M$128M$78M$52M
Operating Income$-965,000$32M$-9M$-11M
Net Income$33,000$30M$-12M$-4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.00$0.23$-0.10$-0.03
Gross Margin59.6%63.9%59.1%39.3%
Operating Margin-0.6%16.1%-6.8%-8.2%
Net Margin0.0%14.8%-9.1%-3.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 22.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 72/100Score impact: -3.8pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
68
$14M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
46
$1.5B
Range
100
119% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$27.63$57.4170%Wide
2022$14.56$39.3191.9%Wide
2023$18.65$35.8063%Wide
2024$15.19$31.5470%Wide
2025$8.20$21.3188.9%Wide
3-Year Range
125.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
119.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.