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47

ECPG

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Encore Capital Group, Inc.

Conservative #705Aggressive #465Low RiskMLโ†‘ 36pt
$68.29+6.80%
Day High$68.69
Day Low$64.00
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $2652W High $69
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
7.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
32.6%
Profit Margin
-2.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
4.13

Why This Score

ECPG scores 46.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 4.13) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-8.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score46.9
Fundamental Score52.1
ML Score46.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.0
6 Month
69.3
Primary
1 Year
73.0

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (454.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.1x โ€” balance sheet risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
58
Grade C
Base
42.9
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.1
Final
46.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value50
Quality29
Growth72
Stability65
Investment66

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)92.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.1% to +4.5%
Medium-term
+1.1% to +7.8%
Long-term
+2.0% to +11.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 46

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+15.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.71)
Relative Strength vs Sector+43.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.499
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P61
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P26
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P76
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 46th percentileP46
Blended score: 80% fundamental (52) + 20% ML (46) = 50.950.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 5% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (454.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.1x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #205 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ECPG46.9N/A7.7%-2.9%$1.5B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide. The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, as well as manages them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and works toward financial recovery. It is also involved in the provision of early stage collection, business process outsourcing, and contingent collection services, as well as debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originator for non-performing loans. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
Ashish Masih
Employees
7,350
Beta
1.40
Industry
Financial - Mortgages
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
81.1
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.7%
High: $68.75
From 52W Low
+158.2%
Low: $26.45
Moving Averages
10-Day
$59.50
Above
20-Day
$58.10
Above
50-Day
$56.50
Above
200-Day
$46.10
Above
60-Day Support
$51.75
60-Day Resistance
$68.75
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 98/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+48.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.93%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.38x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
99
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap Up

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone RSI overbought
$43.82
Stop Entry Now Target
$71.72
Entry Zone
$55.94 โ€“ $58.20
SMA50 pullback zone ($55.94โ€“$58.2)
Exit Target
$69.63
52-week high / +22% target ($69.63)
Stop Level
$45.18
Below SMA200 ($45.18)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.06Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$474M$460M$442M$393M
Gross Profit$443M$257M$324M$287M
Operating Income$173M$173M$151M$129M
Net Income$77M$75M$59M$47M
EPS (Diluted)$3.37$3.17$2.49$1.93
Gross Margin93.5%55.7%73.4%73.0%
Operating Margin36.6%37.6%34.1%32.9%
Net Margin16.2%16.2%13.3%11.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 58/100Score impact: -4.4pt

Volume
50
205K avg/day
Dollar Vol
63
$12M/day
Float
52
22M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.5B
Range
100
125% spread
Composite Liquidity Score58/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$31.82$62.3964.9%Wide
2022$44.06$72.7349.1%Wide
2023$34.74$58.4650.9%Wide
2024$39.64$54.5531.7%Moderate
2025$26.45$56.6772.7%Wide
3-Year Range
75.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.2%
Outstanding Shares
22M
Bid-Ask Spread
125.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.