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36

DNLI

🏥 Healthcare

Denali Therapeutics Inc.

Conservative #956Aggressive #1088Moderate RiskMixed 42F↑ 29pt
$22.29+4.01%
Day High$22.59
Day Low$21.60
Volume1.6M
Mkt Cap$3.5B
52W Low $1152W High $24
Market Cap
$3.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-100.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-191.1%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

DNLI scores 36.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (13%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (16.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.9 points) applied. DNLI's rank of #956 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score36.3
Fundamental Score36.4
ML Score43.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
14.7
6 Month
16.4
Primary
1 Year
17.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $3.2B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.8%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
76
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
92
Grade A
Base
40.6
SHAP
-0.4
Factors
-0.3
Conviction
-0.8
Divergence
-2.8
Final
36.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)72.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-16.5% to -6.1%
Medium-term
-21.6% to -7.1%
Long-term
-26.6% to -8.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 43

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+60.3%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score76.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-9.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.58)
Relative Strength vs Sector-11.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality+0.106
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P2
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P16
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 31th percentileP31
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -0.4pt (features diverge from model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (60.1) + 9% ML (29.5) + SHAP(-0.4) = 56.9—
Factor quality: -0.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.6%. Max drawdown 20% (-5.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($3.2B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.8pt (conviction=42)—
Divergence penalty: -2.8pt (fund 29pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (20.2%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $3.2B biotech/pharma — limited product diversificationFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #162 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DNLI36.3N/A-100.0%0.0%$3.2B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy17 analysts
Buy: 17
Price Target
$33consensus
Low $25Median $34High $40
+48.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Denali Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops therapeutic candidates for neurodegenerative diseases in the United States. It offers leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) inhibitor product candidate, including BIIB122/DNL151, a small molecule inhibitor, which is in phase I and phase Ib clinical trials for the treatment of Parkinson's disease. The company also develops DNL310 that is in Phase I/II clinical trials for the treatment of hunter syndrome; DNL343, which is in phase 1 clinical trial the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS); AR443820/DNL788 completed a phase I clinical trial for the treatment of ALS, multiple sclerosis (MS), and Alzheimer's disease; and SAR443122/DNL758, which is in phase II clinical trial for the treatment of cutaneous lupus erythematosus. It has collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Genentech, Inc., Sanofi, F-star Gamma Limited, F-star Biotechnologische Forschungs-Und Entwicklungsges M.B.H, F-star Biotechnology Limited, SIRION Biotech GmbH, Genzyme Corporation, Harvard University, the Michael J. Fox Foundation, and Centogene; and a research and option agreement with Secarna Pharmaceuticals GmbH & Co. KG. to develop antisense therapies in the field of neurodegenerative diseases. The company was formerly known as SPR Pharma Inc. and changed its name to Denali Therapeutics Inc. in March 2015. Denali Therapeutics Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
Ryan J. Watts
Employees
443
Beta
1.02
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
56.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.2%
High: $23.77
From 52W Low
+110.9%
Low: $10.57
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.10
Above
20-Day
$20.60
Above
50-Day
$18.90
Above
200-Day
$16.10
Above
60-Day Support
$15.34
60-Day Resistance
$23.77
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 85/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+38.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.48%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.04x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
73
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$0$0$0
Operating Income$-137M$-135M$-146M$-130M
Net Income$-127M$-124M$-133M$-115M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.74$-0.72$-0.78$-0.67
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 92/100Score impact: -18.9pt

Volume
100
1.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
90
$34M/day
Float
100
139M shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.2B
Range
100
125% spread
Composite Liquidity Score92/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$41.10$79.7063.9%Wide
2022$20.24$47.4780.4%Wide
2023$15.45$33.3173.3%Wide
2024$14.56$33.3378.4%Wide
2025$10.57$24.3578.9%Wide
3-Year Range
103.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
89.2%
Outstanding Shares
156M
Bid-Ask Spread
125.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.