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18

CTRN

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Citi Trends, Inc.

Conservative #1311Aggressive #1318Low RiskMLโ†‘ 34pt
$47.60+1.60%
Day High$48.57
Day Low$46.61
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$397M
52W Low $1752W High $50
Market Cap
$379M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-260.4%
Profit Margin
-2.0%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
2.02

Why This Score

CTRN scores 18.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.02) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -21.7 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CTRN would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score18.0
Fundamental Score37.3
ML Score22.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
61.8
6 Month
69.0
Primary
1 Year
72.7

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (282.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
32
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
16.3
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
-1.8
Divergence
-0.0
Final
18.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

43AVG
Value50
Quality8
Growth21
Stability58
Investment77

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)32.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.4% to +6.0%
Medium-term
+3.0% to +10.1%
Long-term
+4.6% to +14.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 22

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.9%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+57.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.34)
Relative Strength vs Sector+86.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.762
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P31
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P25
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 37 relative to sector peers37/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 22th percentileP22
Blended score: 80% fundamental (37) + 20% ML (22) = 34.234.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 13% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -1.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.0pt (ML 15pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (282.9%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #111 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CTRN18.0N/A0.7%-2.0%$379M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Citi Trends, Inc. operates as a value retailer of fashion apparel, accessories, and home goods. It offers apparel, such as fashion sportswear and footwear for men and ladies, as well as apparel for kids, including newborns, infants, toddlers, boys, and girls; sleepwear, lingerie, and scrubs for ladies; and kids uniforms and accessories. The company also provides accessories and beauty products that include handbags, luggage, hats, belts, sunglasses, jewelry, and watches, as well as undergarments and outerwear for men and women. In addition, it offers home and lifestyle products comprising home products for the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and decorative accessories; and food, tech, team sports, and health products, as well as seasonal items, books, and toys. The company provides its products primarily to African American and Latinx families in the United States. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 609 stores in urban and rural markets in 33 states. The company was formerly known as Allied Fashion, Inc. and changed its name to Citi Trends, Inc. in 2001. Citi Trends, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Savannah, Georgia.

CEO
Kenneth Duane Seipel
Employees
2,600
Beta
2.09
Industry
Apparel - Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
62.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.8%
High: $49.5
From 52W Low
+183%
Low: $16.82
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.80
Above
20-Day
$45.30
Above
50-Day
$44.50
Above
200-Day
$36.60
Above
60-Day Support
$37.85
60-Day Resistance
$49.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+30.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+22.45%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.69x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$197M$191M$202M$211M
Gross Profit$72M$72M$75M$84M
Operating Income$-7M$-7M$553,000$1M
Net Income$-7M$4M$871,000$-14M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.86$0.46$0.11$-1.71
Gross Margin36.5%37.6%37.4%39.7%
Operating Margin-3.7%-3.8%0.3%0.6%
Net Margin-3.5%2.0%0.4%-6.7%

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 32/100Score impact: -29.0pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
20
110K avg/day
Dollar Vol
48
$5M/day
Float
8
7M shares
Mkt Cap
16
$379M
Range
100
194% spread
Composite Liquidity Score32/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$64.83$111.4452.9%Wide
2022$15.48$97.14145%Wide
2023$14.21$34.9484.4%Wide
2024$13.66$32.9082.6%Wide
2025$16.82$49.5098.6%Wide
3-Year Range
113.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
89.8%
Outstanding Shares
8M
Bid-Ask Spread
194.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.