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30

JACK

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Jack in the Box Inc.

Conservative #1083Aggressive #1363Moderate RiskML↑ 15pt
$17.28+2.43%
Day High$17.37
Day Low$16.81
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$330M
52W Low $1452W High $40
Market Cap
$331M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-6.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-120.0%
Profit Margin
-5.2%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

JACK scores 30.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -3.77) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (15.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score30.0
Fundamental Score38.1
ML Score7.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
48.8
6 Month
54.6
Primary
1 Year
57.4

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality — significant fundamental weaknesses

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
36
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
62
Grade Blow float, small cap
Base
29.9
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Divergence
-2.4
Final
30.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

33AVG
Value50
Quality19
Growth13
Stability55
Investment28

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)43.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)40.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.0% to +2.2%
Medium-term
-5.3% to +3.9%
Long-term
-6.6% to +5.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 7

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.7/100
Target Upside+15.8%
Coverage41 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score36.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-52.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.16)
Relative Strength vs Sector-46.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.0)
Momentum Quality-0.271
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P12
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P10
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.6σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 38 relative to sector peers38/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 7th percentileP7
Blended score: 80% fundamental (38) + 20% ML (7) = 31.931.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 40% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered — see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -2.4pt (ML 31pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #94 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
JACK30.0N/A-6.7%-5.2%$331M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants. As of November 23, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants in 21 states and Guam. The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
Lance F. Tucker
Employees
1,606
Beta
1.15
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
29.9
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-57.9%
High: $41.09
From 52W Low
+23.5%
Low: $13.99
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.80
Below
20-Day
$20.10
Below
50-Day
$20.40
Below
200-Day
$19.50
Below
60-Day Support
$16.34
60-Day Resistance
$23.86
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 14/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-11.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-13.12%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.36x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
6
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$350M$326M$333M$337M
Gross Profit$92M$87M$95M$98M
Operating Income$55M$24M$41M$-157M
Net Income$45M$6M$22M$-142M
EPS (Diluted)$2.34$0.30$1.15$-7.47
Gross Margin26.3%26.5%28.5%29.1%
Operating Margin15.7%7.4%12.2%-46.7%
Net Margin12.9%1.8%6.6%-42.2%

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade B — 62/100Score impact: -1.8pt

Volume
88
709K avg/day
Dollar Vol
64
$12M/day
Float
40
17M shares
Mkt Cap
13
$331M
Range
100
194% spread
Composite Liquidity Score62/100
FDCBA
low floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$77.13$124.5347%Wide
2022$54.80$96.8755.5%Wide
2023$60.43$99.5648.9%Wide
2024$38.12$86.2077.3%Wide
2025$13.99$44.15103.7%Wide
3-Year Range
150.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
88.6%
Outstanding Shares
19M
Bid-Ask Spread
194.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.