Back to Dashboard
52

CNXN

💻 Technology

PC Connection, Inc.

Conservative #556Aggressive #1044Low RiskModerate 74
$60.55-0.43%
Day High$61.59
Day Low$60.55
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $5552W High $71
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
18.7
Sector avg: 49.8
Rev Growth
2.5%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-3.9%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

CNXN scores 52.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (4.1% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (74/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CNXN would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.6
Fundamental Score63.2
ML Score66.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
54.9
6 Month
61.3
Primary
1 Year
64.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.041 vol with only 2.5% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
30
Grade Dlow volume, low float
Base
48.6
SHAP
+3.4
Factors
+0.6
Final
52.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)69.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.6% to +1.0%
Medium-term
-8.0% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 66

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.1%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.11)
Relative Strength vs Sector-2.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality+0.009
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
29%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P25
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P81
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P47
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 78 relative to sector peers78/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 64th percentileP64
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (77.5) + 9% ML (64.5) + SHAP(+3.7) = 80.1
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.1%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 12% (-1.5 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.6B market cap)-8.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -15 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (21.8%) — earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.0 vol with only 2.5% revenue growth — stagnation, not safetyFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #119 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CNXN52.618.72.5%2.9%$1.5B
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
RMBS77.648.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
AAPL74.333.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
OLED73.027.012.4%34.3%$5.0B
Sector Average48.049.814.8%-110.0%

Company Overviewvia FMP

PC Connection, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various information technology (IT) solutions. The company operates through three segments: Business Solutions, Enterprise Solutions, and Public Sector Solutions. It offers IT products, including computer systems, data center solutions, software and peripheral equipment, networking communications, and other products and accessories, as well as provides services related to design, configuration, and implementation of IT solutions. The company markets its products and services through its websites comprising connection.com, connection.com/enterprise, connection.com/publicsector, and macconnection.com. It serves small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) that include small office/home office customers; government and educational institutions; and medium-to-large corporate accounts through outbound telemarketing and field sales, and marketing programs targeted to specific customer populations, as well as through digital, web, and print media advertising. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Merrimack, New Hampshire.

CEO
Timothy J. McGrath
Employees
2,580
Beta
0.84
Industry
Technology Distributors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
30.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.8%
High: $71.17
From 52W Low
+10.4%
Low: $54.97
Moving Averages
10-Day
$61.80
Below
20-Day
$62.20
Below
50-Day
$60.00
Above
200-Day
$62.20
Below
60-Day Support
$55.51
60-Day Resistance
$68.88
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.47%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.94x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
8
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$703M$709M$760M$701M
Gross Profit$136M$139M$138M$127M
Operating Income$27M$30M$31M$15M
Net Income$21M$25M$25M$13M
EPS (Diluted)$0.82$0.97$0.97$0.51
Gross Margin19.3%19.6%18.1%18.2%
Operating Margin3.8%4.3%4.1%2.1%
Net Margin2.9%3.5%3.3%1.9%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 18.7Valuation below sector median (P/E 18.7)

Tradability FilterGrade D — 30/100Score impact: -1.8pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
12
86K avg/day
Dollar Vol
50
$5M/day
Float
14
9M shares
Mkt Cap
50
$1.5B
Range
38
29% spread
Composite Liquidity Score30/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 18/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$40.91$55.2129.8%Moderate
2022$40.08$56.6834.3%Moderate
2023$37.76$70.4560.4%Wide
2024$57.47$77.1929.3%Moderate
2025$54.97$74.8430.6%Moderate
3-Year Range
68.6%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningstagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
36.2%
Outstanding Shares
25M
Bid-Ask Spread
29.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.