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21

BWIN

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.

Conservative #1264Aggressive #797High RiskMLโ†‘ 43pt
$23.23+25.64%
Day High$23.50
Day Low$20.12
Volume2.6M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $1652W High $47
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
14.0%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
72.8%
Profit Margin
-1.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
2.78

Why This Score

BWIN scores 21.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (14.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.78) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-6.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score21.0
Fundamental Score22.9
ML Score16.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.9
6 Month
72.5
Primary
1 Year
76.3

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
21.5
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
-3.4
Final
21.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

41AVG
Value50
Quality20
Growth84
Stability32
Investment18

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)51.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)25.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.6% to +6.3%
Medium-term
+3.1% to +10.2%
Long-term
+4.5% to +14.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 16

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.9/100
Target Upside+58.1%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.6%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-12.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.80)
Relative Strength vs Sector-68.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.1)
Momentum Quality-0.221
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P74
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P26
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P7
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 23 relative to sector peers23/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 16th percentileP16
Blended score: 80% fundamental (23) + 20% ML (16) = 21.521.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 63% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -3.4pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #301 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BWIN21.0N/A14.0%-1.9%$1.3B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions; and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The Insurance Advisory Solutions segment provides commercial risk management, employee benefits, and private risk management solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals, as well as their families. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment offers Future platform, that manufactures technology-enabled insurance products suite comprises personal, commercial, and specialty lines; specialty wholesale broker business that delivers professionals, individuals, and niche industry businesses; and reinsurance brokerage services. The Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment provides personal insurance, commercial insurance, and life and health solutions to individuals and businesses in communities. The company was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. in May 2024. The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

CEO
Trevor Lowry Baldwin
Employees
4,000
Beta
1.33
Industry
Insurance - Brokers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
65.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-50.7%
High: $47.15
From 52W Low
+46.3%
Low: $15.88
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.60
Above
20-Day
$18.30
Above
50-Day
$22.30
Above
200-Day
$30.00
Below
60-Day Support
$15.88
60-Day Resistance
$28.24
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-22.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-15.99%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.26x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$347M$365M$374M$409M
Gross Profit$14M$93M$105M$145M
Operating Income$-8M$3M$28M$56M
Net Income$-26M$-19M$-3M$14M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.37$-0.27$-0.05$0.20
Gross Margin4.0%25.5%28.1%35.4%
Operating Margin-2.2%0.9%7.5%13.7%
Net Margin-7.4%-5.1%-0.8%3.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 14.0%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 85/100Score impact: -15.3pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
81
$22M/day
Float
88
71M shares
Mkt Cap
44
$1.3B
Range
100
197% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$29.40$55.8262%Wide
2025$21.26$47.1575.7%Wide
3-Year Range
89.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 2
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.2%
Outstanding Shares
72M
Bid-Ask Spread
197.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.