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48

STNE

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

StoneCo Ltd.

Conservative #643Aggressive #532Moderate RiskModerate 75
$16.63-1.45%
Day High$16.85
Day Low$16.28
Volume2.3M
Mkt Cap$4.4B
52W Low $952W High $20
Market Cap
$4.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
12.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-195.2%
Profit Margin
-8.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.38

Why This Score

STNE scores 49.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (75/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (15.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.38) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. STNE's rank of #643 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score49.0
Fundamental Score45.7
ML Score51.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
50.0
6 Month
55.9
Primary
1 Year
58.8

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
70
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
87
Grade A
Base
46.9
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.9
Final
49.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)55.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.9% to +2.2%
Medium-term
-2.3% to +3.8%
Long-term
-2.7% to +5.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 51

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+20.3%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score70.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.8%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+79.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.03)
Relative Strength vs Sector+78.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.640
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P55
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 59th percentileP59
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (54.0) + 9% ML (57.2) + SHAP(+1.2) = 55.4โ€”
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 15.9%. Max drawdown 22% (-5.7 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -0.1pt (82% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.7B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (50.5%) exceeds net margin (-8.5%) by 59pp โ€” possible write-down; High accrual ratio (70.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 18.4% (original: 23.5%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #145 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
STNE49.0N/A12.1%-8.5%$4.5B
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
RMBS77.648.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
AAPL74.333.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
OLED73.027.012.4%34.3%$5.0B
Sector Average48.049.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy20 analysts
Buy: 12Hold: 6Sell: 2
Price Target
$20consensus
Low $19Median $20High $22
+22.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. It distributes its solutions, principally through proprietary Stone Hubs, which offer hyper-local sales and services; and technology and solutions to digital merchants through sales and technical personnel and software vendors, as well as sells solutions to brick-and-mortar and digital merchants through sales team. As of December 31, 2021, the company served approximately 1,766,100 clients primarily small-and-medium-sized businesses; and marketplaces, e-commerce platforms, and integrated software vendors. StoneCo Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in George Town, the Cayman Islands. StoneCo Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of HR Holdings, LLC.

CEO
Pedro Zinner
Employees
7,239
Beta
1.79
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
52.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.9%
High: $19.95
From 52W Low
+92%
Low: $8.64
Moving Averages
10-Day
$16.80
Below
20-Day
$16.90
Below
50-Day
$15.70
Above
200-Day
$15.90
Above
60-Day Support
$13.76
60-Day Resistance
$18.19
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 72/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
+4.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.41%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.78x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
25
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$3.6B$3.3B$3.2B$3.5B
Gross Profit$2.7B$2.4B$2.4B$2.6B
Operating Income$2.0B$1.6B$1.6B$1.7B
Net Income$660M$603M$517M$-2.9B
EPS (Diluted)$2.43$2.17$1.80$-9.98
Gross Margin77.1%74.1%75.3%74.8%
Operating Margin55.7%48.2%49.4%48.3%
Net Margin18.5%18.3%16.3%-83.8%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 12.1%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 87/100Score impact: -24.3pt

Volume
100
6.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$110M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.5B
Range
100
131% spread
Composite Liquidity Score87/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.02$90.30146.2%Wide
2022$6.81$19.6697.1%Wide
2023$8.09$18.6178.8%Wide
2024$7.83$19.4685.2%Wide
2025$7.72$19.9588.4%Wide
3-Year Range
88.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
131.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.