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24

ASTH

🏥 Healthcare

Astrana Health, Inc.

Conservative #1202Aggressive #1087Moderate RiskHigh 93
$20.86+4.55%
Day High$21.02
Day Low$19.99
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.0B
52W Low $1852W High $36
Market Cap
$1.0B
P/E Ratio
102.4
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
46.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-28.9%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.40

Why This Score

ASTH scores 24.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (93/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 102.4x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (16.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.40) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. ASTH's rank of #1202 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score24.4
Fundamental Score25.3
ML Score11.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
49.6
6 Month
55.4
Primary
1 Year
58.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-1192.9%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
70
Grade B
Base
20.4
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Final
24.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)29.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)33.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)75.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.3% to +0.8%
Medium-term
-4.7% to +1.6%
Long-term
-6.0% to +2.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 11

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+65.6%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+15.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.63)
Relative Strength vs Sector-50.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.5)
Momentum Quality-0.153
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P82
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P2
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P93
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 25 relative to sector peers25/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 11th percentileP11
Blended score: 80% fundamental (25) + 20% ML (11) = 22.422.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 41% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-1192.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #249 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ASTH24.4102.446.7%0.3%$1.0B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company is leveraging its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform, operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model which empowers the providers in its network to deliver care to its patients. It offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. The company's physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. It serves patients, primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization plans; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.

CEO
Brandon K. Sim
Employees
1,900
Beta
0.89
Industry
Medical - Care Facilities
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-42.2%
High: $36.2
From 52W Low
+15.8%
Low: $18.08
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.50
Above
20-Day
$20.30
Above
50-Day
$23.50
Below
200-Day
$25.90
Below
60-Day Support
$18.08
60-Day Resistance
$29.33
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 11/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-8.79%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.7x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
22
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$956M$655M$620M$665M
Gross Profit$82M$78M$71M$63M
Operating Income$19M$20M$21M$720,000
Net Income$373,000$9M$7M$-7M
EPS (Diluted)$0.01$0.19$0.14$-0.14
Gross Margin8.5%11.9%11.5%9.5%
Operating Margin2.0%3.1%3.3%0.1%
Net Margin0.0%1.4%1.1%-1.0%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 46.7%Valuation below sector median (P/E 102.4)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 70/100Score impact: -17.7pt

Volume
82
554K avg/day
Dollar Vol
62
$11M/day
Float
69
39M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$1.0B
Range
100
100% spread
Composite Liquidity Score70/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.20$133.23140.7%Wide
2022$26.89$74.0193.4%Wide
2023$27.55$40.8138.8%Wide
2024$31.34$63.2067.4%Wide
2025$20.12$39.9766.1%Wide
3-Year Range
103.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
77.1%
Outstanding Shares
50M
Bid-Ask Spread
100.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.