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46

ACHC

🏥 Healthcare

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

Conservative #739Aggressive #258Moderate RiskMixed 49
$22.14+6.21%
Day High$22.16
Day Low$20.88
Volume3.4M
Mkt Cap$2.0B
52W Low $1152W High $43
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
14.1
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
7.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
1279.7%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.78

Why This Score

ACHC scores 45.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.1x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.6 points) applied. ACHC's rank of #739 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.8
Fundamental Score38.3
ML Score64.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
63.4
6 Month
70.9
Primary
1 Year
74.6

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
37
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
43.4
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-1.6
Final
45.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)59.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)31.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)75.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.4% to +4.8%
Medium-term
+1.2% to +7.9%
Long-term
+2.0% to +11.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 64

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.0/100
Target Upside+8.7%
Coverage25 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score36.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-17.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector-68.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality-0.195
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P53
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P92
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P7
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 74th percentileP74
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (63.3) + 9% ML (74.0) + SHAP(+3.0) = 67.3
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.8%. Max drawdown 56% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -44% (-7.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.5B market cap)-8.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (1280%) massively exceeds revenue growth (7.7%) — earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 166x — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-184.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #107 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ACHC45.814.17.7%3.3%$1.9B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers behavioral healthcare services to its patients in various settings, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, specialty treatment facilities, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. As of March 31, 2022, it operated a network of 238 behavioral healthcare facilities with approximately 10,600 beds. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

CEO
Debra K. Osteen
Employees
25,500
Beta
0.89
Industry
Medical - Care Facilities
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
92.4
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-48.8%
High: $42.85
From 52W Low
+92.1%
Low: $11.43
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.70
Above
20-Day
$15.70
Above
50-Day
$14.70
Above
200-Day
$19.90
Above
60-Day Support
$11.43
60-Day Resistance
$22.09
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 67/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-17.88%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.13x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
2
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$821M$852M$869M$771M
Gross Profit$0$821M$841M$251M
Operating Income$0$120M$142M$13M
Net Income$-1.2B$36M$30M$8M
EPS (Diluted)$-13.02$0.40$0.33$0.09
Gross Margin0.0%96.4%96.7%32.6%
Operating Margin0.0%14.0%16.4%1.7%
Net Margin-143.3%4.3%3.5%1.1%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 14.1Valuation below sector median (P/E 14.1)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: -23.9pt

Volume
100
3.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$62M/day
Float
93
82M shares
Mkt Cap
51
$1.9B
Range
100
275% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
91.0%
Outstanding Shares
90M
Bid-Ask Spread
275.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.