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48

ARHS

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Arhaus, Inc.

Conservative #682Aggressive #965Moderate RiskHigh 100
$9.26+10.50%
Day High$10.52
Day Low$8.81
Volume3.8M
Mkt Cap$1.3B
52W Low $752W High $13
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
17.6
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-1.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-45.3%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
1.43

Why This Score

ARHS scores 47.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (12.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.43) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. ARHS's rank of #682 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.7
Fundamental Score42.2
ML Score50.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
63.3
6 Month
70.7
Primary
1 Year
74.5

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
81
Grade A
Base
43.7
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.0
Final
47.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value71
Quality45
Growth19
Stability61
Investment75

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.9% to +4.4%
Medium-term
-2.4% to +7.1%
Long-term
-2.9% to +9.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 50

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+38.3%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+18.3%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.13)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality-0.022
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
29%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P23
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P70
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P53
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 42 relative to sector peers42/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
Blended score: 80% fundamental (42) + 20% ML (50) = 43.843.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 21% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #58 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ARHS47.717.6-1.3%5.4%$1.3B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy14 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 7
Price Target
$12consensus
Low $12Median $12High $12
+29.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Arhaus, Inc. operates as a lifestyle brand and premium retailer in the home furnishings market. It provides merchandise assortments across various categories, including furniture, lighting, textiles, décor, and outdoor. The company's furniture products comprise bedroom, dining room, living room, and home office furnishings, which includes sofas, dining tables and chairs, accent chairs, console and coffee tables, beds, headboards, dressers, desks, bookcases and modular storage, etc.; and outdoor products include outdoor dining tables, chairs, chaises and other furniture, lighting, textiles, décor, umbrellas, and fire pits. It also offers lighting products, such as various distinct and artistic lighting fixtures, including chandeliers, pendants, table and floor lamps, and sconces; textile products comprising handcrafted indoor and outdoor rugs, bed linens, and pillows and throws; and décor products, including various wall art to mirrors, vases to candles, and other decorative accessories. The company distributes its products through an omni-channel model comprising showrooms, e-commerce platform, catalog, and in-home designer services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 71 traditional showrooms, 5 Design Studios, and 3 Outlets, as well as 58 showrooms with in-home interior designers. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Boston Heights, Ohio.

CEO
John Reed
Employees
2,390
Beta
2.50
Industry
Home Improvement
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-28.7%
High: $12.98
From 52W Low
+40.1%
Low: $6.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$8.90
Above
20-Day
$9.70
Below
50-Day
$10.50
Below
200-Day
$10.10
Below
60-Day Support
$8.13
60-Day Resistance
$12.08
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 23/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-8.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.68%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.41x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
11
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$365M$345M$358M$311M
Gross Profit$139M$133M$148M$116M
Operating Income$20M$16M$47M$5M
Net Income$15M$12M$35M$5M
EPS (Diluted)$0.11$0.09$0.25$0.03
Gross Margin38.1%38.7%41.2%37.1%
Operating Margin5.6%4.8%13.0%1.7%
Net Margin4.1%3.5%9.8%1.6%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 17.6Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.6)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 81/100Score impact: -8.8pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
100
133M shares
Mkt Cap
44
$1.3B
Range
100
96% spread
Composite Liquidity Score81/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.3%
Outstanding Shares
141M
Bid-Ask Spread
96.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.