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WINA

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Winmark Corporation

Conservative #775Aggressive #1226Low RiskML↑ 26pt
$451.55+2.52%
Day High$462.00
Day Low$442.11
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $29652W High $527
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
39.6
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
5.9%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
4.3%
Profit Margin
48.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

WINA scores 44.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 48.4%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.21) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, WINA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.7
Fundamental Score68.2
ML Score56.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.9
6 Month
80.3
Primary
1 Year
84.6

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality — solid metrics, minor concerns possible

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low float, low volume
Base
40.7
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Final
44.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

62AVG
Value40.606449999999995
Quality67
Growth49
Stability74
Investment81

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)56.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)76.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)51.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.3% to +8.2%
Medium-term
+5.9% to +13.3%
Long-term
+8.5% to +18.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 56

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-0.9%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+39.1%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.03)
Relative Strength vs Sector+39.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality+0.327
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P61
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P16
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P22
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 56th percentileP56
Blended score: 80% fundamental (68) + 20% ML (56) = 65.865.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 19% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #68 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
WINA44.739.65.9%48.4%$1.6B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Winmark Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a franchisor of retail store concepts that buy, sell, trade, and consign used merchandise primarily in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Franchising and Leasing. Its franchises retail stores operate under the Plato's Closet, Once Upon A Child, Play It Again Sports, Style Encore, and Music Go Round brand names. The company's Plato's Closet brand stores buys and sells used clothing and accessories for the teenage and young adult market; and Once Upon A Child brand stores buys and sells used and new children's clothing, toys, furniture, equipment, and accessories primarily to parents of children ages infant to 12 years. Its Play It Again Sports brand stores buys, sells, trades in, and used and new sporting goods, equipment, and accessories for various athletic activities, such as team sports, fitness, ski/snowboard, golf, and others; Style Encore brand stores buys and sells used women's apparel, shoes, and accessories; and Music Go Round brand stores buys, sells, trades in, and used and new musical instruments, speakers, amplifiers, music-related electronics, and related accessories. In addition, the company is also involved in the middle-market equipment leasing business focusing on technology and business-essential equipment. As of February 23, 2022, it had 1,271 franchised stores, as well as offers its products online at musicgoround.com, playitagainsports.com, and style-encore.com. Winmark Corporation was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

CEO
Brett D. Heffes
Employees
89
Beta
0.65
Industry
Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.4%
High: $527.37
From 52W Low
+52.7%
Low: $295.79
Moving Averages
10-Day
$451.60
Below
20-Day
$447.80
Above
50-Day
$436.60
Above
200-Day
$429.60
Above
60-Day Support
$395.65
60-Day Resistance
$488.83
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 69/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+5.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.23%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.77x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$21M$23M$20M$22M
Gross Profit$20M$22M$20M$21M
Operating Income$13M$15M$13M$14M
Net Income$10M$11M$11M$10M
EPS (Diluted)$2.69$3.02$2.89$2.71
Gross Margin96.3%97.1%96.2%95.9%
Operating Margin61.7%65.9%64.0%62.0%
Net Margin47.2%49.2%51.9%45.4%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalProfit margin 48.4%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade F — 0/100Score impact: -9.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
92K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$42M/day
Float
0
3M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$1.6B
Range
0
78% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low floatlow volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$173.04$277.9946.5%Wide
2022$183.94$255.0332.4%Moderate
2023$233.21$451.3063.7%Wide
2024$330.25$431.6726.6%Moderate
2025$295.79$527.3756.3%Wide
3-Year Range
77.4%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
77.5%
Outstanding Shares
4M
Bid-Ask Spread
78.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.