Back to Dashboard
65

ARCC

🏦 Financial Services

Ares Capital Corporation

Conservative #234Aggressive #640Low RiskHigh 86
$19.10-2.10%
Day High$19.54
Day Low$19.07
Volume5.0M
Mkt Cap$13.7B
52W Low $1852W High $24
Market Cap
$13.8B
P/E Ratio
10.3
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
32.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-14.7%
Profit Margin
56.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.12

Why This Score

ARCC scores 65.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 56.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 10.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.2% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (86/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.12) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.6
Fundamental Score64.5
ML Score68.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
58.4
6 Month
65.3
Primary
1 Year
68.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.03) with 56.1% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade Arange bound
Base
61.6
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.4
Conviction
+1.2
Final
65.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)67.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)60.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.4% to +1.1%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.3% to +2.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 68

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+14.2%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.99)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.2)
Momentum Quality-0.084
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P88
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P81
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P66
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 68th percentileP68
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (61.2) + 9% ML (68.0) + SHAP(+3.7) = 65.5
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.2%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 10% (-1.0 pts). Price momentum -9% (-0.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($13.8B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.9pt (conviction=86)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.03) with 56.1% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backedFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #92 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ARCC65.610.332.9%56.1%$13.8B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies. It also makes growth capital and general refinancing. It prefers to make investments in companies engaged in the basic and growth manufacturing, business services, consumer products, health care products and services, and information technology service sectors. The fund will also consider investments in industries such as restaurants, retail, oil and gas, and technology sectors. It focuses on investments in Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Southwest regions from its New York office, the Midwest region, from the Chicago office, and the Western region from the Los Angeles office. The fund typically invests between $20 million and $200 million and a maximum of $400 million in companies with an EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million. It makes debt investments between $10 million and $100 million The fund invests through revolvers, first lien loans, warrants, unitranche structures, second lien loans, mezzanine debt, private high yield, junior capital, subordinated debt, and non-control preferred and common equity. The fund also selectively considers third-party-led senior and subordinated debt financings and opportunistically considers the purchase of stressed and discounted debt positions. The fund prefers to be an agent and/or lead the transactions in which it invests. The fund also seeks board representation in its portfolio companies.

CEO
Kort Schnabel
Employees
1,200
Beta
0.62
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19%
High: $23.63
From 52W Low
+4.8%
Low: $18.26
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.30
Below
20-Day
$19.40
Below
50-Day
$20.00
Below
200-Day
$21.10
Below
60-Day Support
$18.66
60-Day Resistance
$21.14
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.03%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.25x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$635M$655M$579M$446M
Gross Profit$447M$460M$407M$274M
Operating Income$529M$431M$378M$248M
Net Income$293M$404M$361M$241M
EPS (Diluted)$0.41$0.57$0.52$0.36
Gross Margin70.4%70.2%70.3%61.4%
Operating Margin83.3%65.8%65.3%55.6%
Net Margin46.1%61.7%62.3%54.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 10.3Revenue growth 32.9%Profit margin 56.1%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: +18.0pt

Volume
100
5.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$110M/day
Float
100
713M shares
Mkt Cap
82
$13.8B
Range
38
29% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA
range bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 69/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 4 of the last 5 years (3-year range: 33.8%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -3.5pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$17.95$21.7419.1%Narrow
2022$16.53$23.0032.7%Moderate
2023$16.95$20.2117.5%Narrow
2024$19.32$22.4414.9%Narrow
2025$18.26$23.8426.5%Moderate
3-Year Range
33.8%
Narrow Years
4 / 5
Sideways Penalty
-3.5pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.3%
Outstanding Shares
718M
Bid-Ask Spread
29.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.