Back to Dashboard
46

ALAB

💻 Technology

Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock

Conservative #684Aggressive #737Moderate RiskModerate 79
$128.15-0.19%
Day High$129.00
Day Low$121.74
Volume5.3M
Mkt Cap$21.8B
52W Low $4752W High $263
Market Cap
$21.9B
P/E Ratio
100.3
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
115.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
362.7%
Profit Margin
25.7%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

ALAB scores 45.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 25.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (79/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 100.3x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (22.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.8
Fundamental Score54.7
ML Score13.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
47.1
6 Month
52.7
Primary
1 Year
55.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
88
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
46.3
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-4.0
Final
45.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)67.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)46.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.6% to +2.5%
Medium-term
-4.5% to +4.5%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 13

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.0/100
Target Upside+58.8%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score87.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+103.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.39)
Relative Strength vs Sector+70.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality+0.488
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P99
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P9
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P25
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+2.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 56th percentileP56
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (66.4) + 9% ML (56.1) + SHAP(+2.4) = 67.9
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 22.0%. Max drawdown 34% (-10.4 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($21.9B market cap)+2.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-45.7%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 11.1% (original: 12.4%). Semiconductors has ~18% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~45%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #158 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALAB45.8100.3115.1%25.7%$21.9B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy15 analysts
Buy: 12Hold: 3
Price Target
$202consensus
Low $165Median $200High $225
+57.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Astera Labs, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure. Its Intelligent Connectivity Platform is comprised of a portfolio of data, network, and memory connectivity products, which are built on a unifying software-defined architecture that enables customers to deploy and operate high performance cloud and AI infrastructure at scale. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Santa Clara, California.

CEO
Jitendra Mohan
Employees
440
Beta
1.51
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-51.3%
High: $262.9
From 52W Low
+171.9%
Low: $47.13
Moving Averages
10-Day
$130.00
Below
20-Day
$145.90
Below
50-Day
$158.10
Below
200-Day
$151.40
Below
60-Day Support
$117.41
60-Day Resistance
$192.86
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 27/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-15.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+21.7%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.25x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
10
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$271M$231M$192M$159M
Gross Profit$204M$176M$146M$119M
Operating Income$67M$55M$40M$11M
Net Income$45M$91M$51M$32M
EPS (Diluted)$0.25$0.50$0.29$0.18
Gross Margin75.6%76.2%75.8%74.9%
Operating Margin24.7%24.0%20.7%7.1%
Net Margin16.6%39.5%26.7%20.0%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 115.1%Profit margin 25.7%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: +5.9pt

Volume
100
5.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$719M/day
Float
100
141M shares
Mkt Cap
86
$21.9B
Range
100
458% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$36.22$147.36121.1%Wide
2025$47.13$262.90139.2%Wide
3-Year Range
151.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 2
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
83.4%
Outstanding Shares
169M
Bid-Ask Spread
458.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.