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MCHP

💻 Technology

Microchip Technology Incorporat

Conservative #677Aggressive #760Moderate RiskLow 34ML↑ 33pt
$75.47-0.61%
Day High$77.10
Day Low$75.38
Volume7.7M
Mkt Cap$40.8B
52W Low $3452W High $83
Market Cap
$42.5B
P/E Ratio
29.6
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
-42.3%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-100.0%
Profit Margin
-0.0%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.80

Why This Score

MCHP scores 45.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (38%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (14.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.9
Fundamental Score40.3
ML Score69.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.8
6 Month
73.5
Primary
1 Year
77.4

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
66
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
46.0
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
-1.5
Divergence
-2.1
Final
45.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value55
Quality40
Growth35
Stability60
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)22.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.3% to +3.8%
Medium-term
-3.2% to +6.1%
Long-term
-4.1% to +8.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 69

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.5/100
Target Upside+15.0%
Coverage46 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector+34.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.7)
Momentum Quality+0.289
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
14%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P1
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P41
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P35
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-1.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 44 relative to sector peers44/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (44.0) + 9% ML (76.9) + SHAP(+2.5) = 49.4—
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.0%. Max drawdown 23% (-6.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($42.5B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.5pt (conviction=34)—
Divergence penalty: -3.4pt (ML 33pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #157 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MCHP45.929.6-42.3%-0.0%$42.5B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy46 analysts
Strong Buy: 2Buy: 30Hold: 14
Price Target
$87consensus
Low $69Median $90High $100
+15.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Microchip Technology Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit microcontrollers; 32-bit embedded microprocessors markets; and specialized microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications. It also provides development tools that enable system designers to program microcontroller and microprocessor products for specific applications; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and analog, interface, mixed signal, and timing products comprising power management, linear, mixed-signal, high-voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes and metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETS), radio frequency (RF), drivers, safety, security, timing, USB, Ethernet, wireless, and other interface products. In addition, the company offers memory products consisting of serial electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random access memories, and serial electrically erasable random access memories for the production of very small footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and NVM technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products that require embedded non-volatile memory, as well as provides engineering services. Further, it offers wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems products, application specific integrated circuits, and aerospace products. Microchip Technology Incorporated was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.

CEO
Stephen Sanghi
Employees
22,300
Beta
1.44
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-9.5%
High: $83.35
From 52W Low
+121.1%
Low: $34.13
Moving Averages
10-Day
$77.90
Below
20-Day
$77.70
Below
50-Day
$73.00
Above
200-Day
$66.70
Above
60-Day Support
$52.37
60-Day Resistance
$83.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 79/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.61%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.89x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
57
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$1.2B$1.1B$1.1B$971M
Gross Profit$707M$470M$577M$501M
Operating Income$152M$95M$32M$-100M
Net Income$35M$42M$-19M$-155M
EPS (Diluted)$0.06$0.08$-0.09$-0.29
Gross Margin59.6%41.2%53.6%51.6%
Operating Margin12.8%8.3%3.0%-10.3%
Net Margin2.9%3.7%-1.7%-15.9%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A — 99/100Score impact: -19.6pt

Volume
100
9.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$727M/day
Float
100
530M shares
Mkt Cap
96
$42.5B
Range
100
144% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.9%
Outstanding Shares
541M
Bid-Ask Spread
144.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.